Background As an emerging virus, SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of transmission during air travel is of high interest. This paper is a retrospective estimate of the probability of an infectious passenger in the air travel system transmitting the SARS-CoV-2 virus to a fellow passenger. Methods Literature was reviewed from May–September 2020 to identify COVID-19 cases related to air travel. The studies were limited to publicly available literature for passengers; studies of flight crews were not reviewed. A novel quantitative approach was developed to estimate air travel transmission risk that considers secondary cases, the overall passenger population, and correction factors for asymptomatic transmission and underreporting. Results There were at least 2866 index infectious passengers documented to have passed through the air travel system in a 1.4 billion passenger population. Using correction factors, the global risk of transmission during air travel is estimated at 1:1.7 million; acknowledging that assumptions exist around case detection rate and mass screenings. Uncertainty in the correction factors and a 95% credible interval indicate risk ranges from 1 case for every 712,000 travelers to 1 case for every 8 million travelers. Conclusion The risk of COVID-19 transmission on an aircraft is low, even with infectious persons onboard.

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Significant testing is required to design and certify primary aircraft structure subject to High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) events; current work under the NASA Advanced Composites Consortium (ACC) HEDI Project seeks to determine the state-of-the-art of dynamic fracture simulations for composite structures in these events. This paper discusses one of four Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods selected for this project: peridynamics, through EMU implementation. A brief discussion of peridynamic theory is provided, followed by an outline of ballistic impact testing performed for model development and assessment. Detailed modeling approach and test-analysis correlation for a single open test case are presented, followed by the results of a series of blind predictions made prior to testing and test-analysis correlation performed with measured NASA test results. Specifically, we present simulation results for the ballistic limit (V50) of IM7/8552 composite panels ballistically tested with an impactor representative of a high-velocity fan-blade-out condition. In particular, force and displacement history and the damage state determined analytically are compared to measured results. Ultimately, peridynamics has the ability to predict damage patterns, impact force and deflections during a high energy dynamic impact event on composite panels of different layups using two different types of impactors. Blind predictions were promising and increased confidence in the model for impact simulation. There are open questions regarding the fidelity of the test fixture idealization in regards to stiffness and damping which will need to be addressed in future work.

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For High Energy Dynamic Impact (HEDI) events, testing to evaluate the structural response of primary aircraft structure for design and certification is both expensive and time consuming. This paper discusses current work seeking to assess, develop, and validate appropriate analytical models that accurately predict physical response, damage, and failure modes for large scale composite structures in HEDI events. Four state-of-the-art Progressive Damage Analysis (PDA) methods were employed for this phased project: LS-DYNA MAT162, LS-DYNA MAT261, Smoothed Particle Galerkin (SPG), and EMU Peridynamics. Multiple material systems were considered, namely T700/5208 textile-infusion triaxial braid, T800/AMD-825 textile-infusion triaxial braid, IM7/8552 uni-directional tape, and SPG 196-PW/8552 plain-weave fabric. Extensive ballistic impact testing was performed to support this activity and measured results were compared to predictive models for assessment using panel delamination, panel displacement, force at the load cells, and threshold velocity as measures. Ultimately, the work under this activity provided significant progress in advancing the state-of-the-art in the use of PDA for HEDI events. Each material model had favorable performance comparing to test in some parameters and needed improvement in others. With the lessons learned from this activity, significant progress was made in the ability to predict panel behavior for a more general case beyond the flat panel in a ballistic impact event. Subsequent Phase II of the NASA ACC HEDI effort will continue to build on the coupon testing, flat panel ballistic impact testing, and analysis performed to-date with application of the PDA methods for intended material selections to test articles with greater complexity of configuration, curvature, and scale. It is not the intention of this paper to present a full set of data, but rather to give an overview of the NASA HEDI effort and show a small representative subset of the test and analysis results.