The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

Over the last quarter-century, hurricane surge has been assumed to be primarily a function of maximum storm wind speed, as might be estimated from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. However, Hurricane Katrina demonstrated that wind speed alone cannot reliably describe surge. Herein it is shown that storm size plays an important role in surge generation, particularly for very intense storms making landfall in mildly sloping regions. Prior to Hurricane Katrina, analysis of the historical hurricane record evidenced no clear correlation between surge and storm size, and consequently little attention was given to the role of size in surge generation. In contrast, it is found herein that, for a given intensity, surge varies by as much as 30% over a reasonable range of storm sizes. These findings demonstrate that storm size must be considered when estimating surge, particularly when predicting socioeconomic and flood risk.

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