No abstract

We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥ 1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual‐based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25‐year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25‐year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n = 61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.

Aim: Estimating the distribution and abundance of wildlife is an essential task in species conservation, wildlife management and habitat prioritization. Although a host of methods and tools have been proposed to accomplish this undertaking, several challenges remain in accurately forecasting occurrence and abundance for highly mobile species.Exhibiting extensive geographic ranges with seasonally varying local occupancy, migratory ducks are exemplar highly mobile species and are foci for waterfowl conservation and management globally. With the goal of informing species conservation and management, our aim was to leverage citizen science data to estimate occurrence and relative abundance for ten dabbling duck species across the continental United States. Location: Conterminous United States. Methods:We applied spatially and temporally explicit Bayesian hierarchical modelling to jointly estimate season-specific occurrence and relative abundance for ten dabbling duck species in the Genus Anas. Our conditionally dependent model design enabled relative abundance estimates to be informed by occurrence probability while accounting for cumulative spatial and temporal errors across shared model components.Results: Outcomes suggest that although dabbling duck distributions show little inter-annual variability at the continental scale, local relative abundances may differyear to year. Commensurate with being highly mobile migratory species, estimates indicate considerable intra-annual variation with occurrence probability, local abundance and habitat preferences differing by season and species.Main conclusions: Our approach offers a powerful and flexible framework for quantifying intra-/inter-annual duck occurrence and relative abundance while accounting for spatial, temporal and data collection biases. We believe that model produced maps can be applied to inform waterfowl conservation and management throughout the continental United States.

We used an individual‐based population model to perform a viability analysis to simulate population growth (λ) of 167 elk (Cervus elaphus manitobensis; 71 male and 96 female) released in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee, to estimate sustainability (i.e., λ > 1.0) and identify the most appropriate options for managing elk restoration. We transported elk from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, and from Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky, and reintroduced them beginning in December 2000 and ending in February 2003. We estimated annual survival rates for 156 radio‐collared elk from December 2000 until November 2004. We used data from a nearby elk herd in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to simulate pessimistic and optimistic recruitment and performed population viability analyses to evaluate sustainability over a 25‐year period. Annual survival averaged 0.799 (Total SE = 0.023). The primary identifiable sources of mortality were poaching, disease from meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis), and accidents (environmental causes and unintentional harvest). Population growth given pessimistic recruitment rates averaged 0.895 over 25 years (0.955 in year 1 to 0.880 in year 25); population growth was not sustainable in 100% of the runs. With the most optimistic estimates of recruitment, mean λ increased to 0.967 (1.038 in year 1 to 0.956 in year 25) with 99.6% of the runs failing to be sustainable. We suggest that further translocation efforts to increase herd size will be ineffective unless survival rates are increased in the Cumberland Mountains. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.