Detection of invasive species before or soon after they establish in novel environments is critical to prevent widespread ecological and economic impacts. Environmental DNA (eDNA) surveillance and monitoring is an approach to improve early detection efforts. Here we describe a large-scale conservation application of a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay with a case study for surveillance of a federally listed nuisance species (Ruffe, Gymnocephalus cernua) in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Using current Ruffe distribution data and predictions of future Ruffe spread derived from a recently developed model of ballast-mediated dispersal in US waters of the Great Lakes, we designed an eDNA surveillance study to target Ruffe at the putative leading edge of the invasion. We report a much more advanced invasion front for Ruffe than has been indicated by conventional surveillance methods and we quantify rates of false negative detections (i.e. failure to detect DNA when it is present in a sample). Our results highlight the important role of eDNA surveillance as a sensitive tool to improve early detection efforts for aquatic invasive species and draw attention to the need for an improved understanding of detection errors. Based on axes that reflect the weight of eDNA evidence of species presence and the likelihood of secondary

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Ballast water in ships is an important contributor to the secondary spread of invasive species in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Here, we use a model previously created to determine the role ballast water management has played in the secondary spread of viral hemorrhagic septicemia virus (VHSV) to identify the future spread of one current and two potential invasive species in the Great Lakes, the Eurasian Ruffe (Gymnocephalus cernuus), killer shrimp (Dikerogammarus villosus), and golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), respectively. Model predictions for Eurasian Ruffe have been used to direct surveillance efforts within the Great Lakes and DNA evidence of ruffe presence was recently reported from one of three high risk port localities identified by our model. Predictions made for killer shrimp and golden mussel suggest that these two species have the potential to become rapidly widespread if introduced to the Great Lakes, reinforcing the need for proactive ballast water management. The model used here is flexible enough to be applied to any species capable of being spread by ballast water in marine or freshwater ecosystems.

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