BackgroundOlder patients are at an increased risk of developing adverse drug reactions (ADR). Of particular concern are the oldest old, which constitute an increasingly growing population. Having a validated clinical tool to identify those older patients at risk of developing an ADR during hospital stay would enable healthcare staff to put measures in place to reduce the risk of such an event developing. The current study aimed to (1) develop and (2) validate an ADR risk prediction model.MethodsWe used a combination of univariate analysis and multivariate binary logistic regression to identify clinical risk factors for developing an ADR in a population of older people from a UK teaching hospital. The final ADR risk model was then validated in a European population (European dataset).ResultsSix-hundred-ninety patients (median age 85 years) were enrolled in the development stage of the study. Ninety-five reports of ADR were confirmed by independent review in these patients. Five clinical variables were identified through multivariate analysis and included in our final model; each variable was attributed a score of 1. Internal validation produced an AUROC of 0.74, a sensitivity of 80%, and specificity of 55%. During the external validation stage the AUROC was 0.73, with sensitivity and specificity values of 84% and 43% respectively.ConclusionsWe have developed and successfully validated a simple model to use ADR risk score in a population of patients with a median age of 85, i.e. the oldest old. The model is based on 5 clinical variables (≥8 drugs, hyperlipidaemia, raised white cell count, use of anti-diabetic agents, length of stay ≥12 days), some of which have not been previously reported.

AimsPolypharmacy is increasingly common in older adults, placing them at risk of medication‐related harm (MRH). Patients are particularly vulnerable to problems with their medications in the period following hospital discharge due to medication changes and poor information transfer between hospital and primary care. The aim of the present study was to investigate the incidence, severity, preventability and cost of MRH in older adults in England postdischarge.MethodsAn observational, multicentre, prospective cohort study recruited 1280 older adults (median age 82 years) from five teaching hospitals in Southern England, UK. Participants were followed up for 8 weeks by senior pharmacists, using three data sources (hospital readmission review, participant telephone interview and primary care records), to identify MRH and associated health service utilization.ResultsOverall, 413 participants (37%) experienced MRH (556 MRH events per 1000 discharges), of which 336 (81%) cases were serious and 214 (52%) potentially preventable. Four participants experienced fatal MRH. The most common MRH events were gastrointestinal (n = 158, 25%) or neurological (n = 111, 18%). The medicine classes associated with the highest risk of MRH were opiates, antibiotics and benzodiazepines. A total of 328 (79%) participants with MRH sought healthcare over the 8‐week follow‐up. The incidence of MRH‐associated hospital readmission was 78 per 1000 discharges. Postdischarge MRH in older adults is estimated to cost the National Health Service £396 million annually, of which £243 million is potentially preventable.ConclusionsMRH is common in older adults following hospital discharge, and results in substantial use of healthcare resources.

Background Older people living with frailty are often exposed to polypharmacy and potential harm from medications. Targeted deprescribing in this population represents an important component of optimizing medication. This systematic review aims to summarise the current evidence for deprescribing among older people living with frailty. Methods The literature was searched using Medline, Embase, CINAHL, PsycInfo, Web of Science, and the Cochrane library up to May 2020. Interventional studies with any design or setting were included if they reported deprescribing interventions among people aged 65+ who live with frailty identified using reliable measures. The primary outcome was safety of deprescribing; whereas secondary outcomes included clinical outcomes, medication-related outcomes, feasibility, acceptability and cost-related outcomes. Narrative synthesis was used to summarise findings and study quality was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute checklists. Results Two thousand three hundred twenty-two articles were identified and six (two randomised controlled trials) were included with 657 participants in total (mean age range 79–87 years). Studies were heterogeneous in their designs, settings and outcomes. Deprescribing interventions were pharmacist-led (n = 3) or multidisciplinary team-led (n = 3). Frailty was identified using several measures and deprescribing was implemented using either explicit or implicit tools or both. Three studies reported safety outcomes and showed no significant changes in adverse events, hospitalisation or mortality rates. Three studies reported positive impact on clinical outcomes including depression, mental health status, function and frailty; with mixed findings on falls and cognition; and no significant impact on quality of life. All studies described medication-related outcomes and reported a reduction in potentially inappropriate medications and total number of medications per-patient. Feasibility of deprescribing was reported in four studies which showed that 72–91% of recommendations made were implemented. Two studies evaluated and reported the acceptability of their interventions and further two described cost saving. Conclusion There is a paucity of research about the impact of deprescribing in older people living with frailty. However, included studies suggest that deprescribing could be safe, feasible, well tolerated and can lead to important benefits. Research should now focus on understanding the impact of deprescribing on frailty status in high risk populations. Trial registration The review was registered on the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) ID number: CRD42019153367.

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication-related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge.Design, setting, participantsMulticentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015.Primary outcome measureParticipants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non-adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated.Results1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow-up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases (‘possible’ and ‘probable’) were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced ‘definite’ MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool’s discrimination C-statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches.ConclusionsThe PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool’s evaluation in other settings.

The WHO Global Patient Safety Challenge: Medication Without Harm recognises medication-related harm (MRH) as a global public health issue. Increased life-expectancy coupled with multimorbidity and polypharmacy leads to an increased incidence of MRH, especially in older adults: at a cost of approximately £400 million to the National Health Service (NHS) in England. Harm from medicines has long been recognised by geriatricians, and strategies have been developed to mitigate harm. In general, these have focused on the challenges of polypharmacy and appropriateness of medicines, but impact on the quality of life, clinical and economic outcomes has been variable and often disappointing. The problem of MRH in older adults will continue to grow unless a new approach is adopted. Emerging evidence suggests that we need to take a broader approach as described in our conceptual model, where well-recognised physiological changes are incorporated, as well as other rarely considered psychosocial issues that influences MRH. Parallels may be drawn between this approach and the management of geriatric syndromes. We propose there must be a greater emphasis on MRH, and it, of itself, should be considered as a geriatric syndrome, to bring the spotlight onto the problem and to send a clear signal from geriatric experts that this is an important issue that needs to be addressed using a co-ordinated and tailored approach across health and social care boundaries. This requires a more proactive approach to monitor and review the medicines of older adults in response to their changing need.