Avalanching glacier instabilities are gravity-driven rupture phenomena that might cause major disasters, especially when they are at the origin of a chain of processes. Reliably forecasting such events combined with a timely evacuation of endangered inhabited areas often constitute the most efficient action. Recently, considerable efforts in monitoring, analyzing, and modeling such phenomena have led to significant advances in destabilization process understanding, improving early warning perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent progress in this domain. Three different types of instabilities can be identified depending on the thermal properties of the ice/bed interface. If cold (1), the maturation of the rupture is associated with a typical time evolution of surface velocities and passive seismic activity. A prediction of the final break off is possible using these precursory signs. For the two other types, water plays a key role in the development of the instability. If the ice/bed interface is partly temperate (2), the presence of meltwater may reduce the basal resistance, which promotes the instability. No clear and easily detectable precursory signs are known in this case, and the only way to infer any potential instability is to monitor the temporal evolution of the thermal regime. The last type of instability (3) concerns steep temperate glacier tongues switching for several days/weeks during the melting season into a so-called "active phase" followed in rare cases by a major break-off event. Although the prediction of such events is still far from being achievable, critical conditions promoting the final instability can be identified.

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ABSTRACT. In 1973, surface velocities were measured for the first time on an unstable hanging glacier to predict its collapse. The observed velocities have been shown to increase as a power-law function of time up to infinity at the theoretical time of failure (known as 'finite time singularity'). This is the characteristic signature of critical phenomena and has been observed in the case of various other naturally occurring ruptures such as earthquakes, landslides and snow avalanches. Recent velocity measurements performed on Weisshorn and Mönch hanging glaciers, Switzerland, confirmed this behaviour, while log-periodic oscillations superimposed on this general acceleration were also detected. Despite different rupture mechanisms in both cases, the log frequency of the oscillations is shown to be the same. The seismic activity was recorded near the unstable Weisshorn hanging glacier, simultaneously with the velocity measurements. Results show dramatically increasing icequake activity 3 days before the final collapse. Combined motion-seismic monitoring seems to be a promising way to accurately predict the breakingoff of hanging glaciers. Such a combined analysis is also useful for capturing the physical mechanisms of rupture in natural heterogeneous materials.

Abstract. Understanding rock slope kinematics in steep, fractured bedrock permafrost is a challenging task. Recent laboratory studies have provided enhanced understanding of rock fatigue and fracturing in cold environments but were not successfully confirmed by field studies. This study presents a unique time series of fracture kinematics, rock temperatures and environmental conditions at 3500 m a. s. l.  on the steep, strongly fractured Hörnligrat of the Matterhorn (Swiss Alps). Thanks to 8 years of continuous data, the longer-term evolution of fracture kinematics in permafrost can be analyzed with an unprecedented level of detail. Evidence for common trends in spatiotemporal pattern of fracture kinematics could be found: a partly reversible seasonal movement can be observed at all locations, with variable amplitudes. In the wider context of rock slope stability assessment, we propose separating reversible (elastic) components of fracture kinematics, caused by thermoelastic strains, from the irreversible (plastic) component due to other processes. A regression analysis between temperature and fracture displacement shows that all instrumented fractures exhibit reversible displacements that dominate fracture kinematics in winter. Furthermore, removing this reversible component from the observed displacement enables us to quantify the irreversible component. From this, a new metric – termed index of irreversibility – is proposed to quantify relative irreversibility of fracture kinematics. This new index can identify periods when fracture displacements are dominated by irreversible processes. For many sensors, irreversible enhanced fracture displacement is observed in summer and its initiation coincides with the onset of positive rock temperatures. This likely indicates thawing-related processes, such as meltwater percolation into fractures, as a forcing mechanism for irreversible displacements. For a few instrumented fractures, irreversible displacements were found at the onset of the freezing period, suggesting that cryogenic processes act as a driving factor through increasing ice pressure. The proposed analysis provides a tool for investigating and better understanding processes related to irreversible kinematics.