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During the 1960s, water management practices resulted in the conversion of the wetlands that fringe northeastern Florida Bay (USA) from freshwater/oligohaline herbaceous marshes to dwarf red mangrove forests. Coincident with this conversion were several ecological changes to Florida Bay's fauna, including reductions in the abundances of top trophic-level consumers: piscivorous fishes, alligators, crocodiles, and wading birds. Because these taxa rely on a common forage base of small demersal fishes, food stress has been implicated as playing a role in their respective declines. In the present study, we monitored the demersal fishes seasonally at six sites over an 8-year time period. During monitoring, extremely high rainfall conditions occurred over a 3.5-year period leading to salinity regimes that can be viewed as ''windows'' to the area's natural past and future restored states. In this paper, we: (1) examine the changes in fish communities over the 8-year study period and relate them to measured changes in salinity; (2) make comparisons among marine, brackish and freshwater demersal fish communities in terms of species composition, density, and biomass; and (3) discuss several implications of our findings in light of the intended and unintended water management changes that are planned or underway as part of Everglades restoration. Results suggest the reduction in freshwater flow to Florida Bay over the last several decades has reduced demersal fish populations, and thus prey availability for apex consumers in the coastal wetlands compared to the pre-drainage inferred standard. Furthermore, greater discharge of freshwater toward Florida Bay may result in the re-establishment of pre-1960s fauna, including a more robust demersal-fish community that should prompt increases in populations of several important predatory species.

A brackish water ecotone of coastal bays and lakes, mangrove forests, salt marshes, tidal creeks, and upland hammocks separates Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and the Gulf of Mexico from the freshwater Everglades. The Everglades mangrove estuaries are characterized by salinity gradients that vary spatially with topography and vary seasonally and inter-annually with rainfall, tide, and freshwater flow from the Everglades. Because of their location at the lower end of the Everglades drainage basin, Everglades mangrove estuaries have been affected by upstream water management practices that have altered the freshwater heads and flows and that affect salinity gradients. Additionally, interannual variation in precipitation patterns, particularly those caused to El Nin ˜o events, control freshwater inputs and salinity dynamics in these estuaries. Two major external drivers on this system are water management activities and global climate change. These drivers lead to two major ecosystem stressors: reduced freshwater flow volume and duration, and sea-level rise. Major ecological attributes include mangrove forest production, soil accretion, and resilience; coastal lake submerged aquatic vegetation; resident mangrove fish populations; wood stork (Mycteria americana) and roseate spoonbill (Platelea ajaja) nesting colonies; and estuarine crocodilian populations. Causal linkages between stressors and attributes include coastal transgression, hydroperiods, salinity gradients, and the ''white zone'' freshwater/estuarine interface. The functional estuary and its ecological attributes, as influenced by sea level and freshwater flow, must be viewed as spatially dynamic, with a possible near-term balancing of transgression but ultimately a long-term continuation of inland movement. Regardless of the spatio-temporal timing of this transgression, a salinity gradient supportive of ecologically functional Everglades mangrove estuaries will be required to maintain the integrity of the South Florida ecosystem.

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