We will be asking ourselves whether the trading blocs created or renewed since the end of the 1980s favor the multilateralization of trade, and so constitute building or stumbling blocks with regard to trade flows. In a gravity model using panel data, we estimate a set of three regional dummies representative of intrabloc trade, extra-bloc exports and extra-bloc imports. Taking the resulting three coefficients as a starting point, we propose an original typology of trade creations / diversions and of trading blocs. By applying this to our results, all the groups chosen as well as the Economic and Monetary Union, are shown to be building blocks. No trade diversion is noted, apart from an export diversion brought about by the North American Free Trade Agreement.• JEL Classification: F13, F15, C23•

Brazilian Amazon deforestation rate is found to display a unit root and to be cointegrated with Brazilian GDP and its square-An Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC). Although, it is not the first time that such an EKC is detected, this may be the first such time-series evidence. Detecting an EKC is hampered by several econometric issues that have been shown to lead to possibly spurious results in cross-section and panel contexts, but are satisfactorily addressed in a cointegrated (time-series) framework. Alternative theories for explaining the deforestation path are rejected. There is evidence that the "Action Plan" of the Brazilian government against deforestation had an important effect. These results are in contrast to the economics literature on an EKC in emissions such asCO2, but appear to be consistent with a geographical sciences literature that considers that deforestation declines when alternative activities become available.

We will be asking ourselves if the trading blocs created or renewed since the end of the 1980s favor the multilateralization of trade, and so constitute building or stumbling blocks. In a gravity model using panel data, we estimate a set of three regional dummies representative of intra-bloc trade, extra-bloc exports and extra-bloc imports. Taking the resulting three coefficients as a starting point, we propose an original typology of trade creations / diversions and of trading blocs. In applying it to our results, all the groups chosen as well as the Economic and Monetary Union, are shown to be building blocks. No trade diversion is noted, with the exception of an export diversion brought about by North American Free Trade Agreement.

Future membership of CEE countries in the euro zone highlights the risk of external asymmetric demand shocks due to too strong a dependence on one sector or one customer country. The purpose of this article is to build two indicators of exposure to shocks—sector-based and geographical—taking into account the symmetry of the export structures of a future member with the EMU and the trade openness of the future member. This enables us to draw up a classification of the CEE countries according to fulfillment of the Kenen criterion, revised and then transposed to the geographical variety of exports. The results, compared with those of the two countries in the EMU which are most sensitive to sector-based and geographical shocks (Finland and Ireland), testify to a generally pronounced exposure to shocks. An inventory of the pairs 'country/branch' and 'country/destination' liable to be at the origin of shocks with strong macroeconomic impact shows that Bulgaria and Slovakia, and to an even greater extent Estonia and Latvia, are exposed to major risks. In so far as Bulgaria and Latvia's real convergence process with the euro zone seems scarcely to have started, these two economies might consider postponing EMU membership or creating a cyclical stabilisation fund on joining. This recommendation contradicts the endogenous OCA theory, which is put forward when intra-industry trade intensifies. However, an increase in the share of intra-industry trade between a CEE country and the EMU does not necessarily entail less exposure to the shocks studied.