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Background Herpes zoster (HZ) develops in up to 50% of unvaccinated individuals, accounting for >1 million cases annually in the United States. A live attenuated HZ vaccine (LAV) is Food and Drug Administration approved for those age 50 years or older, though Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommendations are only for those age 60 years or older. LAV efficacy is ~70% for persons 50–59 years of age, with lower efficacy in older adults. A new 2-dose adjuvanted subunit vaccine (SUV) has >95% efficacy in persons 50–69 years of age and remains ~90% efficacious in persons vaccinated at age 70 years. Methods To estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of SUV, LAV, and no vaccination (NoV) strategies, a Markov model was developed based on published data on vaccine efficacy, durability of protection, quality of life, resource utilization, costs, and disease epidemiology. The perspective was US societal, and the cycle length was 1 year with a lifelong time horizon. SUV efficacy was estimated to wane at the same rate as LAV. Outcomes evaluated included lifetime costs, discounted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results For individuals vaccinated at age 50 years, the ICER for LAV vs NoV was $118 535 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY); at age 60 years, the ICER dropped to $42 712/QALY. SUV was more expensive but had better ICERs than LAV. At age 50, the ICER was $91 156/QALY, and it dropped to $19 300/QALY at age 60. Conclusions Vaccination with SUV was more cost-effective than LAV in all age groups studied. Vaccination with SUV at age 50 years appears cost-effective, with an ICER <$100 000/QALY.

IntroductionRib fractures in elderly patients are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Predicting which patients are at risk for complications is an area of debate. Current models use anatomic, physiologic or laboratory parameters in isolation to answer this question. The ‘RibScore’ is an anatomic model that assesses fracture severity. Given that frailty is a major driver of adverse outcomes in the elderly, we hypothesize that the combined analysis of fracture severity, physiologic reserve and current pulmonary function are better predictors of respiratory compromise in this population.MethodsThis is a retrospective chart review of 263 trauma patients age ≥55 from January 2014 to June 2017. Criteria included blunt mechanism and ≥ 1 rib fracture identified by CT. Variables indicating adverse pulmonary outcomes were defined by: pneumonia, respiratory failure and tracheostomy. Three models were assessed: (1) RibScore, (2) Modified Frailty Index (mFI) and (3) initial partial pressure of carbondioxide (PaCO2).ResultsA total of 263 patients met inclusion criteria. 13% developed pulmonary complications. Increased RibScore, mFI and PaCO2 were each statistically associated with risk of complications. Receiver operating characteristics area under the curve analysis of individual models predicted complications with the following concordance statistic (CS): anatomic (RibScore) yielded a CS of 0.79 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.89); physiologic (mFI) yielded a CS of 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and laboratory (PaCO2) yielded a CS of 0.88 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.95). The PaCO2 had the highest discriminative ability of the three individual models. Combining all three models yielded the best performance with a CS of 0.90 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.97).DiscussionThe RibScore maintains discriminative ability in the elderly. However, models based on mFI and PaCO2 individually outperform the RibScore. A combination of all three models yields the highest discriminative ability. This combined approach is best for assessing the severity of rib fractures and prediction of complications in the elderly.Level of evidencePrognostic Study, Level III.

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BackgroundHerpes zoster (HZ) develops in up to 50% of unvaccinated individuals who live to 85 years of age, accounting for more than 1 million cases of HZ annually in the United States. A live attenuated vaccine (LAV) for HZ is U.S. FDA approved for persons 50 years or older, though CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations are only for persons beginning at age 60 years. LAV efficacy at preventing HZ is ~70% for persons 50–59 years of age, with lower efficacy in older adults, and it is efficacious in preventing post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) beyond the HZ prevention. The efficacy of LAV after vaccination wanes over time. A new adjuvanted HZ subunit vaccine (SUV), administered as a two-dose series, has greater than 95% efficacy against HZ in persons 50–69 years of age. SUV efficacy remains greater than 90% in persons vaccinated at age 70 years and older, including the subgroup older than 80 years of age. Overall efficacy of SUV against PHN approaches 90%. The waning rate of efficacy after SUV vaccination is unknown.MethodsTo estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of SUV, LAV and no vaccination (NV) strategies, a Markov model was developed based on published trials and data on vaccine efficacy persistence, quality of life, resource utilization, costs and disease epidemiology. The perspective was U.S. societal, and the cycle length was one year with a lifelong time horizon. SUV efficacy was estimated for the base case to wane at the same rate as LAV, all persons were assumed to receive both doses of SUV, and the cost of SUV included both doses.ResultsFor individuals vaccinated at age 50 years the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for LAV vs. NV was $142,811 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY); at age 60 years the ICER dropped to $59,482 per QALY. The cost-effectiveness ratio of SUV approached that of LAV when the SUV cost approached $500 for persons vaccinated at age 50 years and when the cost was $400 for those vaccinated at age 60 years. The SUV cost that would result in achieving an ICER target of $100,000 per QALY for SUV vaccination vs. NV at age 50 years was $316; at age 60 years the cost was $638.ConclusionVaccination at age 60 years with SUV was more cost-effective than LAV when SUV cost was ~$450 or less. Vaccination with SUV at age 50 years appeared to be cost-effective if SUV cost was ~$315 or less.Disclosures All authors: No reported disclosures.