Abiraterone treats metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer by inhibiting CYP17A, an enzyme for testosterone auto-production. With standard dosing, evolution of resistance with treatment failure (radiographic progression) occurs at a median of ~16.5 months. We hypothesize time to progression (TTP) could be increased by integrating evolutionary dynamics into therapy. We developed an evolutionary game theory model using Lotka–Volterra equations with three competing cancer “species”: androgen dependent, androgen producing, and androgen independent. Simulations with standard abiraterone dosing demonstrate strong selection for androgen-independent cells and rapid treatment failure. Adaptive therapy, using patient-specific tumor dynamics to inform on/off treatment cycles, suppresses proliferation of androgen-independent cells and lowers cumulative drug dose. In a pilot clinical trial, 10 of 11 patients maintained stable oscillations of tumor burdens; median TTP is at least 27 months with reduced cumulative drug use of 47% of standard dosing. The outcomes show significant improvement over published studies and a contemporaneous population.

Spatial heterogeneity in tumors is generally thought to result from branching clonal evolution driven by random mutations that accumulate during tumor development. However, this concept rests on the implicit assumption that cancer cells never evolve to a fitness maximum because they can always acquire mutations that increase proliferative capacity. In this study, we investigated the validity of this assumption. Using evolutionary game theory, we demonstrate that local cancer cell populations will rapidly converge to the fittest phenotype given a stable environment. In such settings, cellular spatial heterogeneity in a tumor will be largely governed by regional variations in environmental conditions, e.g. alterations in blood flow. Model simulations specifically predict a common spatial pattern in which cancer cells at the tumor-host interface exhibit invasion-promoting, rapidly-proliferating phenotypic properties, while cells in the tumor core maximize their population density by promoting supportive tissue infrastructures e.g. to promote angiogenesis. We tested model predictions through detailed quantitative image analysis of phenotypic spatial distribution in histological sections of 10 patients with stage 2 invasive breast cancers. CAIX, GLUT1 and Ki67 were upregulated in the tumor edge consistent with an acid-producing invasive, proliferative phenotype. Cells in the tumor core were 20% denser than the edge, exhibiting upregulation of CAXII, HIF-1α and cleaved caspase-3, consistent with a more static and less proliferative phenotype. Similarly, vascularity was consistently lower in the tumor center compared to the tumor edges. Lymphocytic immune responses to tumor antigens also trended to higher level in the tumor edge, although this effect did not reach statistical significance. Like invasive species in nature, cancer cells at the leading edge of the tumor possess a different phenotype from cells in the tumor core. Our results suggest that at least some of the molecular heterogeneity in cancer cells in tumors is governed by predictable regional variations in environmental selection forces, arguing against the assumption that cancer cells can evolve toward a local fitness maximum by random accumulation of mutations. Major Findings Like invasive species in nature, cancer cells at the leading edge of the tumor possess a different phenotype from cells in the tumor core. We conclude that at least some intratumoral heterogeneity in the molecular properties of cancer cells is governed by predictable regional variations in environmental selection forces.

In metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), abiraterone is conventionally administered continuously at maximal tolerated dose until treatment failure. The majority of patients initially respond well to abiraterone but the cancer cells evolve resistance and the cancer progresses within a median time of 16 months. Incorporating techniques that attempt to delay or prevent the growth of the resistant cancer cell phenotype responsible for disease progression have only recently entered the clinical setting. Here we use evolutionary game theory to model the evolutionary dynamics of patients with mCRPC subject to abiraterone therapy. In evaluating therapy options, we adopt an optimal control theory approach and seek the best treatment schedule using nonlinear constrained optimization. We compare patient outcomes from standard clinical treatments to those with other treatment objectives, such as maintaining a constant total tumor volume or minimizing the fraction of resistant cancer cells within the tumor. Our model predicts that continuous high doses of abiraterone as well as other therapies aimed at curing the patient result in accelerated competitive release of the resistant phenotype and rapid subsequent tumor progression. We find that long term control is achievable using optimized therapy through the restrained and judicious application of abiraterone, maintaining its effectiveness while providing acceptable patient quality of life. Implementing this strategy will require overcoming psychological and emotional barriers in patients and physicians as well as acquisition of a new class of clinical data designed to accurately estimate intratumoral eco-evolutionary dynamics during therapy.

Metastatic prostate cancer is initially treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). However, resistance typically develops in about 1 year - a clinical condition termed metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). We develop and investigate a spatial game (agent based continuous space) of mCRPC that considers three distinct cancer cell types: (1) those dependent on exogenous testosterone (T), (2) those with increased CYP17A expression that produce testosterone and provide it to the environment as a public good (T), and (3) those independent of testosterone (T). The interactions within and between cancer cell types can be represented by a 3 × 3 matrix. Based on the known biology of this cancer there are 22 potential matrices that give roughly three major outcomes depending upon the absence (good prognosis), near absence or high frequency (poor prognosis) of T cells at the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS). When just two cell types coexist the spatial game faithfully reproduces the ESS of the corresponding matrix game. With three cell types divergences occur, in some cases just two strategies coexist in the spatial game even as a non-spatial matrix game supports all three. Discrepancies between the spatial game and non-spatial ESS happen because different cell types become more or less clumped in the spatial game - leading to non-random assortative interactions between cell types. Three key spatial scales influence the distribution and abundance of cell types in the spatial game: i. Increasing the radius at which cells interact with each other can lead to higher clumping of each type, ii. Increasing the radius at which cells experience limits to population growth can cause densely packed tumor clusters in space, iii. Increasing the dispersal radius of daughter cells promotes increased mixing of cell types. To our knowledge the effects of these spatial scales on eco-evolutionary dynamics have not been explored in cancer models. The fact that cancer interactions are spatially explicit and that our spatial game of mCRPC provides in general different outcomes than the non-spatial game might suggest that non-spatial models are insufficient for capturing key elements of tumorigenesis.