The ability of ecological niche models (ENMs) to produce robust predictions for different time frames (i.e. temporal transferability) may be hindered by a lack of ecologically relevant predictors. Model performance may also be affected by species traits, which may reflect different responses to processes controlling species distribution. In this study, we tested four primary hypotheses involving the role of species traits and environmental predictors in ENM performance and transferability. We compared the predictive accuracy of ENMs based upon (1) climate, (2) land-use/cover (LULC) and (3) ecosystem functional attributes (EFAs), and (4) the combination of these factors for 27 bird species within and beyond the time frame of model calibration. The combination of these factors significantly increased both model performance and transferability, highlighting the need to integrate climate, LULC and EFAs to improve biodiversity projections. However, the overall model transferability was low (being only acceptable for less than 25% of species), even under a hierarchical modelling approach, which calls for great caution in the use of ENMs to predict bird distributions under global change scenarios. Our findings also indicate that positive effects of species traits on predictive accuracy within model calibration are not necessarily translated into higher temporal transferability.
In many regions of Europe, large-scale socioeconomic changes have led to the abandonment of rural activities and a gradual takeover of natural vegetation. It is important to assess the relative positive and negative effects of land abandonment on particular areas where the low-intensity farming is no longer socially or economically viable in order to quantify the potential conservation costs and benefits of a rewilding as a land-use management policy. During the period 2000-2010, we studied the landuse/land-cover changes in an abandoned mountain landscape (Galicia, NW Spain) and evaluated the effects on breeding bird occurrence and distribution. For this purpose, we analysed remotely sensed data-derived maps in combination with data obtained from bird censuses carried out in 2000 and 2010 at both landscape and census plot scale. The results revealed a gradient of change from bare ground and open shrubland to closed shrubland and woodland. Thirteen shrubland and forest bird species showed a significant increase (including species of conservation concern such as Turtle Dove, Dartford Warbler and Western Bonelli's Warbler), while four ecotone and open-habitat species (e.g. Red-backed Shrike) showed a significant negative trend. In conclusion, rewilding appears to have overall positive effects on biodiversity and should be considered by policy makers as alternative land-use strategy in marginal mountain areas, particularly if they have been historically affected by wildfires. Fire management aimed at favouring the creation of small burned areas in progressively closed landscapes derived from rewilding may be a complementary alternative to maintain open habitats in these areas.Editor: Erica Smithwick.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (
Objective To describe the spectrum of neurological complications observed in a hospital‐based cohort of COVID‐19 patients who required a neurological assessment. Methods We conducted an observational, monocentric, prospective study of patients with a COVID‐19 diagnosis hospitalized during the 3‐month period of the first wave of the COVID‐19 pandemic in a tertiary hospital in Madrid (Spain). We describe the neurological diagnoses that arose after the onset of COVID‐19 symptoms. These diagnoses could be divided into different groups. Results Only 71 (2.6%) of 2750 hospitalized patients suffered at least one neurological complication (77 different neurological diagnoses in total) during the timeframe of the study. The most common diagnoses were neuromuscular disorders (33.7%), cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) (27.3%), acute encephalopathy (19.4%), seizures (7.8%), and miscellanea (11.6%) comprising hiccups, myoclonic tremor, Horner syndrome and transverse myelitis. CVDs and encephalopathy were common in the early phase of the COVID‐19 pandemic compared to neuromuscular disorders, which usually appeared later on ( p = 0.005). Cerebrospinal fluid severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) polymerase chain reaction was negative in 15/15 samples. The mortality was higher in the CVD group (38.1% vs. 8.9%; p = 0.05). Conclusions The prevalence of neurological complications is low in patients hospitalized for COVID‐19. Different mechanisms appear to be involved in these complications, and there was no evidence of direct invasion of the nervous system in our cohort. Some of the neurological complications can be classified into early and late neurological complications of COVID‐19, as they occurred at different times following the onset of COVID‐19 symptoms.
Background and purpose Limited information is available on incidence and outcomes of COVID‐19 in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). This study investigated the risks of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection and COVID‐19‐related outcomes in patients with MS, and compared these with the general population. Methods A regional registry was created to collect data on incidence, hospitalization rates, intensive care unit admission, and death in patients with MS and COVID‐19. National government outcomes and seroprevalence data were used for comparison. The study was conducted at 14 specialist MS treatment centers in Madrid, Spain, between February and May 2020. Results Two‐hundred nineteen patients were included in the registry, 51 of whom were hospitalized with COVID‐19. The mean age ± standard deviation was 45.3 ± 12.4 years, and the mean duration of MS was 11.9 ± 8.9 years. The infection incidence rate was lower in patients with MS than the general population (adjusted incidence rate ratio = 0.78, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70–0.80), but hospitalization rates were higher (relative risk = 5.03, 95% CI = 3.76–6.62). Disease severity was generally low, with only one admission to an intensive care unit and five deaths. Males with MS had higher incidence rates and risk of hospitalization than females. No association was found between the use of any disease‐modifying treatment and hospitalization risk. Conclusions Patients with MS do not appear to have greater risks of SARS‐CoV‐2 infection or severe COVID‐19 outcomes compared with the general population. The decision to start or continue disease‐modifying treatment should be based on a careful risk–benefit assessment.
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