This paper aims to examine the rice industry in Vietnam during the period 1997–2017, focusing its production and export. The total area of Vietnam is 33.121 million hectares, out of which 39.25% consists of agricultural land. The agricultural sector adds up to 24% of the gross domestic product (GDP), 20% of the total exports and over 70% of the total employment. Vietnam’s economy is highly dependent on the agricultural sector, specifically rice production, which constitutes 30% of the country’s total agricultural production value. While its production at first aimed to ensure food security in the country, to date, Vietnam is one the world’s largest exporters. While extensive research has explored the rice industry, studies looking at the production through the use of fertilizers, external factors such as the exporting price of other countries and world consumption rates are still lacking. Given the complexity of the topic, data were analyzed through descriptive, econometric and quantitative methods. For production and export analyses, two and four hypotheses were derived and examined, respectively, all based on economic theory. The model consisted of two equations: (i) the paddy production is impacted by rice’s yield and fertilizer use and (ii) in addition to internal factors, the growth of exporting rice in Vietnam depends also on external factors such as Thailand’s rice export price and world consumption rates. Based on the model, a dynamic forecasting method was employed, using the previous forecast values of the dependent variables to compute the future ones. Findings showed that 98% of Vietnam’s rice production is explained through the yield and fertilizer usage and 83% of Vietnam’s rice export is explained by the production, the price in Vietnam and Thailand and the consumption levels around the world. When it comes to forecasting, an 8% growth is predicted with a peak in quantity produced, with 49,461 thousand tons in 2023, yet with difficulties when it comes to exporting. The research predicts a stagnation in exports.
While the market price of land in Czechia has increased in recent years, the officially set land price, published by the State Land Office and the Research Institute for Soil and Water Conservation, has decreased in several regions (Olomouc, Zlín, South Moravia, Moravian-Silesian, and Central Bohemia Region). Four out of five of these regions are said to have the most fertile soil. The main reason for the official land price decrease has been the re-evaluation of land parcels which are based on field sample testing. Based on these sample tests some parcels have been re-evaluated as less fertile. This paper aims to identify the main determinants, which led to the decrease of the official land price and soil fertility in these regions of Czechia. It has been determined that crop structure significantly differs from the “valuation type structure” which indicates optimal share of individual crops to achieve the optimal yield without soil degradation. It has also been determined that there were statistically significant differences in all selected regions for all observed crops (excluding rapeseed in Moravian-Silesian Region) and Czechia between the shares of individual crops and shares according to the “valuation type structure”. It may be concluded that farmers follow short-term interests (profit) instead of long-term goals (soil fertility) in the selected regions. Moreover, results for Czechia suggest that this trend is becoming more common in every region of Czechia. Thus, the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index was utilized. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index shows decreasing crop diversity in all selected region, as in Czechia as well. Based on the data analysis, it is possible to identify several crops, which are prevailing (wheat, barley, rapeseed, and fodder crops). Three of these crops (wheat, barley, and rapeseed) in combination with intensive farming and poor crop rotation have been found to be problematic and a potential threat which may cause degradation in soil fertility. Based upon this the following measures have been recommended: First, to focus on proven agricultural practices, including crop rotation and fodder crops. Second, the fodder crops production should be supported, and the structure of the “single area payment subsidies” should reflect the negative impact of the three main prevailing crops (wheat, maize, and barley) on soil fertility and the decrease of livestock production in Czechia.
In times of turbulent financial markets, investors all around the globe seek for opportunities protecting their portfolios from devastating losses. Historically, commodities were regarded as a safe haven providing sound returns which offset potential losses arising from dropping equity prices in times of market turmoil. While sugar would have provided a proper hedge against crashing equity markets during the initiation of the 2007 bear market and the onset financial crisis, sugar prices dropped likewise equity during the outbreak of COVID-19 and the consequent market shock. The goal of the paper is to elaborate on the differences in sugar price dynamics during the aforementioned economic disruptions by employing a multiple linear regression approach using data from the last quarter 2007 as well as the first quarter of 2019. The findings suggest that the behavioral differences stem from the deep link between oil and sugar prices. While oil did not influence the price of sugar during the outbreak of the financial crisis, it had tremendous influence on sugar prices during the outbreak of the corona crisis. Currently, sugar provides a substantial upside for an investor's portfolio since the demand and supply-side shock on oil prices due to corona crisis as well as the Saudi-Russian oil price war drove oil prices and consequently sugar prices to a historic low. Sugar futures provide the advantage of offering a smaller contract size compared to oil futures, and even though both commodities trade in contango as of March 2020, the sugar future curve is by far not as steep as the oils. Resultingly, investors benefit from lower rollover costs while prospering from a potential surge in oil prices.
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