This paper reviews recent progress in the study and understanding of extreme seasonal events in the Amazon region, focusing on drought and floods. The review includes a history of droughts and floods in the past, in the present and some discussions on future extremes in the context of climate change and its impacts on the Amazon region. Several extreme hydrological events, some of them characterized as 'once in a century', have been reported in the Amazon region during the last decade. While abundant rainfall in various sectors of the basin has determined extreme floods along the river's main stem in 1953, 1989, 1999, 2009, 2012-2015, deficient rainfall in 1912, 1926, 1963, 1980, 1983, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2005 and 2010 has caused anomalously low river levels, and an increase in the risk and number of fires in the region, with consequences for humans. This is consistent with changes in the variability of the hydrometeorology of the basin and suggests that extreme hydrological events have been more frequent in the last two decades. Some of these intense/reduced rainfalls and subsequent floods/droughts were associated (but not exclusively) with La Niña/El Niño events. In addition, moisture transport anomalies from the tropical Atlantic into Amazonia, and from northern to southern Amazonia alter the water cycle in the region year-to-year. We also assess the impacts of such extremes on natural and human systems in the region, considering ecological, economic and societal impacts in urban and rural areas, particularly during the recent decades. In the context of the future climate change, studies show a large range of uncertainty, but suggest that drought might intensify through the 21st century.

The Amazon basin hosts half the planet's remaining moist tropical forests, but they may be threatened in a warming world. Nevertheless, climate model predictions vary from rapid drying to modest wetting. Here we report that the catchment of the world's largest river is experiencing a substantial wetting trend since approximately 1990. This intensification of the hydrological cycle is concentrated overwhelmingly in the wet season driving progressively greater differences in Amazon peak and minimum flows. The onset of the trend coincides with the onset of an upward trend in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). This positive longer‐term correlation contrasts with the short‐term, negative response of basin‐wide precipitation to positive anomalies in tropical North Atlantic SST, which are driven by temporary shifts in the intertropical convergence zone position. We propose that the Amazon precipitation changes since 1990 are instead related to increasing atmospheric water vapor import from the warming tropical Atlantic.

Rainfall variability in the Amazon basin (AB) is analysed for the 1964-2003 period. It is based on 756 pluviometric stations distributed throughout the AB countries. For the first time it includes data from Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia. In particular, the recent availability of rainfall data from the Andean countries makes it possible to complete previous studies. The impact of mountain ranges on rainfall is pointed out. The highest rainfall in the AB is observed in low windward regions, and low rainfall is measured in leeward and elevated stations. Additionally, rainfall regimes are more diversified in the Andean regions than in the lowlands. Rainfall spatio-temporal variability is studied based on a varimax-rotated principal component analysis (PCA). Long-term variability with a decreasing rainfall since the 1980s prevails in June-July-August (JJA) and September-October-November (SON). During the rainiest seasons, i.e. December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM), the main variability is at decadal and interannual time scales. Interdecadal variability is related to long-term changes in the Pacific Ocean, whereas decadal variability, opposing the northwest and the south of the AB, is associated with changes in the strength of the low-level jet (LLJ) along the Andes. Interannual variability characterizes more specifically the northeast of the basin and the southern tropical Andes. It is related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and to the sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the tropical Atlantic. Mean rainfall in the basin decreases during the 1975-2003 period at an annual rate estimated to be −0.32%. Break tests show that this decrease has been particularly important since 1982. Further insights into this phenomenon will permit to identify the impact of climate on the hydrology of the AB.

A recent increase in extreme flooding in Amazonia is linked to intensification of the atmospheric east-west Walker circulation.