This paper evaluates whether globalization has led to greater sensitivity of
Chinese consumer price inflation to the global output gap. The empirical
analysis uses quarterly data over the period 1995-2012. The global output gap
is measured by weighted output gap of China?s top eighteen trading partners.
Estimating Phillips curve models and vector autoregressive models, we find
that global capacity constraints have both explanatory and predictive power
for domestic consumer?s price inflation in China. Therefore, the central bank
of China should react to developments in global output gaps.
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