Accurate descriptions of strength evolution are required in predictive models of fault zone behavior during earthquakes. At low sliding rates, frictional resistance between fault rocks is much higher than the shear stress that is typically inferred to be present during earthquakes. Laboratory experiments confirm that the friction coefficient drops at high sliding rates, and it is suggested that strengthening, possibly related to an increase in the area of viscous melt patches, may occur after this initial weakening stage. Most existing weakening mechanisms do not predict such strengthening, which may exert an important control on the thickness of the shear zone. We propose a micromechanical model of flash heating that describes how shear resistance evolves at the asperity scale as a result of distributed deformation over a weak layer that grows during the brief lifetime of each asperity contact. Beyond a threshold weakening velocity, our model predicts that friction should decrease with slip rate since higher sliding speeds cause the weak layer to thicken more rapidly. A comparison with published experimental data from a range of mineral systems shows good agreement with the model predictions. The parameter choices that ensure good model fits to the laboratory friction data are consistent with a priori estimates for the onset of asperity melting at high contact normal stresses. At higher sliding rates and/or elevated temperatures, our model predicts that the frictional rate dependence should transition from velocity weakening to become velocity strengthening because decreases in the contact lifetime with slip rate cause the average asperity strength to increase.
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