No abstract

With the refinement and intelligence of power system optimal dispatching, the widespread adoption of advanced grid applications that consider the safety and economy of power systems, and the massive access of distributed energy resources, the requirement for bus load prediction accuracy is continuously increasing. Aiming at the volatility brought about by the large-scale access of new energy sources, the adaptability to different forecasting horizons and the time series characteristics of the load, this paper proposes a phase space reconstruction (PSR) and deep belief network (DBN)-based very short-term bus load prediction model. Cross-validation is also employed to optimize the structure of the DBN. The proposed PSR-DBN very short-term bus load forecasting model is verified by applying the real measured load data of a substation. The results prove that, when compared to other alternative models, the PSR-DBN model has higher prediction accuracy and better adaptability for different forecasting horizons in the case of high distributed power penetration and large fluctuation of bus load.

No abstract

Multi-district integrated energy system (IES) can make full use of the complementary characteristics of district power and thermal system, and loads in different districts. It can improve the flexibility and economy of system operation, which has a good development prospect. Firstly, based on the general energy transfer model of the district heating network (DHN), the DHN system is described by the basic equations of the heating network and nodes considering the characteristics of the transmission time delay and heat loss in pipelines. A coupling model of DHN and multi-district IES is established. Secondly, the flexible demand response (FDR) model of electric and thermal loads is established. The load characteristics of each district in IES are studied. A shiftable load model based on the electric quantity balance is constructed. Considering the flexibility of the heat demand, a thermal load adjustment model based on the comfort constraint is constructed to make the thermal load elastic and controllable in time and space. Finally, a mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model for operation optimization of multi-district IES with the DHN considering the FDR of electric and thermal loads is established based on the supply and demand sides. The result shows that the proposed model makes full use of the complementary characteristics of electric and thermal loads in different districts. It realizes the coordinated distribution of thermal energy among different districts and improves the efficiency of thermal energy utilization through the DHN. FDR effectively reduces the peak-valley difference of loads. It further reduces the total operating cost by the coordinated operation of the DHN and multi-district IES.