IntroductionManagement of coastal wetlands has resulted in extensive conservation of this natural resource; however, changes in carbon storage function are not yet known. There is a direct link between landscape and soil carbon storage. Predicting future changes in the landscape and carbon storage in coastal wetlands is important for developing wetland management policies.MethodHere, remote sensing and physical methods were used to measure and calculate the landscape and surface soil carbon stocks of the Liaohe River Estuary Wetland (LREW). The changes in the landscape and soil carbon stocks under three scenarios: natural development, strict protection, and culture pond transfer, were then predicted using the PLUS model.ResultThe results indicate that the surface soil organic carbon storage was 2107.97×103 t, while soil organic carbon density decreased from land to sea. Anthropogenic activity was found to be the main driver of the current landscape evolution. However, the impact of sea level rise is increasing. By 2030, considerably more storage will be gained under the culture pond transfer scenario than at present.DiscussionOur results reveal that some of the methods of ecological restoration may diminish the carbon storage capacity of coastal wetlands. Making full use of areas with high carbon storage potential may be an effective wetland carbon sink management strategy. Governments should consider more comprehensively for a better carbon pool when developing restoration strategies.

There are many studies on carbon storage estimates, but only a few have shown an increase in carbon storage over time. The reasons for these increases are the positive ecological evolutions. The Liao River Estuary wetland is a unique area with “the more exploited, the higher carbon storage.” Based on remote sensing images and field surveys, we interpret the landscape type of the Liao River Estuary wetland. Furthermore, we estimate carbon storage and density evolution using the InVEST model. The results showed that 356.95 km2 of natural wetlands were transformed into artificial wetlands. The occupied natural wetlands were mainly tidal flats and reeds, which were mostly converted into paddy fields and aquaculture ponds. From 1980 to 2020, the changes in the carbon source and sink areas tended to be stable. The total carbon storage increased by 21.13×104 t. 1980–2010 was in the phase of land use exploitation, and the carbon storage increased by 57.37×104 t; 2010–2020 was in the ecological protection phase, and the carbon storage decreased by 36.25×104 t. It was because the core area with high carbon storage is well protected while exploiting the peripheral low-carbon area increased the carbon storage. It indicates that carbon storage capacity should not be directly related to the development degree and ecological environment value. Instead, it is necessary to calculate the area of natural and artificial wetlands and carbon storage separately, thereby confirming human disturbance and environmental value, etc. This paper demonstrates that development and carbon sequestration can be achieved simultaneously with proper land use planning, providing policy guidance for estuarine economic zones.