The proportion of low-income single mothers who are disconnected, or not receiving public cash assistance or employment earnings, has increased since the 1996 US welfare reform legislation. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the Welfare Rules Database, we use multilevel and multinomial logit models to examine the relationship between state welfare rules and the risk of disconnection. We find that women in states with lifetime limits of less than 60 months are more likely to be disconnected. More generous welfare benefits are associated with a lesser risk of disconnection, while diversion programs are associated with a greater risk of disconnection compared to welfare receipt but are not significant in comparison to employment. Our findings indicate that state rules matter and should be considered as a potential mechanism to change the dynamics of economic disconnection. introductionIn the late 1980s, welfare caseloads in the United States were suddenly rapidly increasing. Experts attributed the shift to a combination of economic, program, and demographic changes at the time ðCongressional Budget Office 1991Þ. The growing caseload became a catalyst for welfare reform and an important context for the resulting legislation, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 ðPRWORAÞ. The accompanying rules include time limits and mandatory work participation Social Service Review (December 2015).

An increasing proportion of low-income single mothers are experiencing periods of economic disconnection, defined as receiving no cash income from welfare or work. Most research on disconnection has focused on personal attributes as risk factors for experiencing disconnection at a static point in time. This study adopts a dynamic perspective and broadens the existing set of determinants by adding regional socioeconomic characteristics to explain changes in status. Results from multivariate survival analyses demonstrate that residence in a disadvantaged county is associated with an increased risk of becoming disconnected. State-level policies, as opposed to county socioeconomic characteristics, have stronger influences on movements out of disconnection. The findings from the analyses provide a base for policy discussions about helping this vulnerable population.

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Income packaging, or piecing together cash and non-cash resources from a variety of sources, is a common financial survival strategy among low-income women. This strategy is particularly important for economically disconnected women, who lack both employment income and public cash assistance receipt. Using data from the confidential Census Bureau versions of the Survey of Income and Program Participation, this study compares the use of public and private supports between disconnected and connected low-income women, controlling for differences in state welfare rules and county unemployment rates. Findings from bivariate comparisons and multilevel logistic regressions indicate that disconnected women utilize public non-cash supports at similar rates to connected women, but rely more heavily on private sources. Conclusions focus on the policy implications for outreach and program development.