Abstract:Reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions has become a global consensus in response to global warming and climate change, especially to China, the largest CO 2 emitter in the world. Most studies have focused on CO 2 emissions from the production sector, however, the household sector plays an important role in the total energy-related CO 2 emissions. This study formulates an integrated model based on logarithmic mean Divisia index methodology and a system dynamics model to dynamically simulate household energy consumption and CO 2 emissions under different conditions. Results show the following: (1) the integrated model performs well in calculating the contribution of influencing factors on household CO 2 emissions and analyzing the options for CO 2 emission mitigation; (2) the increase in income is the dominant driving force of household CO 2 emissions, and as a result of the improved standard of living in China a sustained increase in household CO 2 emissions can be expected; (3) with decreasing energy intensity, CO 2 emissions will decrease to 404.26 Mt-CO 2 in 2020, which is 9.84% lower than the emissions in 2014; (4) the reduction potential by developing non-fossil energy sources is limited, and raising the rate of urbanization cannot reduce the household CO 2 emission under the comprehensive influence of other factors.

Climate change has been considerable concerned because of the increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Gansu province is a typical less-developed and heavy chemical industrial province, its CO2 emission per unit of the gross domestic product (GDP) is 252.52 ton per million Chinese yuan (t/M-CNY) in 2019, which is 48.42% more than national average value. Gansu province faces the following dual pressures including maintaining economic growth and reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This paper establishes a low carbon development system dynamics model in order to investigate the effects of four carbon reduction measures (technical progress, industrial transformation, fuel substitution, and low carbon awareness) on reducing CO2 emission over the period of 2020–2030. The simulation results indicate that, without direct intervention, the CO2 emissions per unit of GDP is projected to be 171.34 t/M-CNY by 2030. While utilizing technical progress, implementing industrial transformation, fuel substitution, and low carbon awareness could potentially be 2.12%, 3.33%, 0.72% and 1.27%, respectively less than that. For the sake of achieving the goal of CO2 reduction in the long run, the local government should address today’s industrial transformation and adopt reasonable combination of adjustment and control policies immediately.