Human activity and land-use changes have affected the water quality of Kwan Phayao, Upper Ing watershed, due to the associated high sediment load and eutrophication. This study aims to identify suitable LULC allocation scenarios for minimizing sediment and nutrient export into the lake. For this purpose, the LULC status and change were first assessed, based on classified LULC data in 2009 and 2019 from Landsat images, using the SVM algorithm. Later, the land requirements of three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were estimated, based on their characteristics, and applied to predict LULC change using the CLUE-S model. Then, actual LULC data in 2019 and predicted LULC data under three scenarios between 2020 and 2029 were used to estimate sediment and nutrient export using the SDR and NDR models. Finally, the ecosystem service change index identified a suitable LULC allocation for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export. According to the results, LULC status and change indicated perennial trees and orchards, para rubber, and rangeland increased, while forest land and paddy fields decreased. The land requirements of the three scenarios provided reasonable results, as expected, particularly Scenario II, which adopts linear programming to calculate the land requirements for maximizing ecosystem service values. For sediment and nutrient export estimation under the predicted LULC for the three scenarios, Scenario II led to the lowest yield of sediment and nutrient exports, and provided the lowest average ESCI value among the three scenarios. Thus, the LULC allocation under Scenario II was chosen as suitable for minimizing sediment or/and nutrient export into Kwan Phayao. These results can serve as crucial information to minimize sediment and nutrient loads for land-use planners, land managers, and decision makers.