In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in Poisson autoregressive models. We suggest two types of cumulative sum (CUSUM) tests, namely, those based on estimates and residuals. We first demonstrate that the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal and then construct the CMLE-based CUSUM test. It is shown that under regularity conditions, its limiting null distribution is a function of independent Brownian bridges. Next, we construct the residual-based CUSUM test and derive its limiting null distribution. Simulation results are provided for illustration. A real-data analysis is performed on data for polio incidence and campylobacteriosis infections.

In this paper, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in a first-order random coefficient integer-valued autoregressive [RCINAR(1)] model. We employ the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test based on the conditional least-squares and modified quasi-likelihood estimators. It is shown that under regularity conditions, the CUSUM test has the same limiting distribution as the supremum of the squares of independent Brownian bridges. The CUSUM test is then applied to the analysis of the monthly polio counts data set. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Background Only few studies have assessed variability in the results obtained by the readers with different experience levels in comparison with automated volumetric breast density measurements. Purpose To examine the variations in breast density assessment according to BI-RADS categories among readers with different experience levels and to compare it with the results of automated quantitative measurements. Material and Methods Density assignment was done for 1000 screening mammograms by six readers with three different experience levels (breast-imaging experts, general radiologists, and students). Agreement level between the results obtained by the readers and the Volpara automated volumetric breast density measurements was assessed. The agreement analysis using two categories-non-dense and dense breast tissue-was also performed. Results Intra-reader agreement for experts, general radiologists, and students were almost perfect or substantial (k = 0.74-0.95). The agreement between visual assessments of the breast-imaging experts and volumetric assessments by Volpara was substantial (k = 0.77). The agreement was moderate between the experts and general radiologists (k = 0.67) and slight between the students and Volpara (k = 0.01). The agreement for the two category groups (nondense and dense) was almost perfect between the experts and Volpara (k = 0.83). The agreement was substantial between the experts and general radiologists (k = 0.78). Conclusion We observed similar high agreement levels between visual assessments of breast density performed by radiologists and the volumetric assessments. However, agreement levels were substantially lower for the untrained readers.