New Zealand faces the challenge of using our land in ways that are not only resilient to future pressures and sustain our rural communities but also enhance our natural environment. For the public and private sectors to make robust land-use decisions under uncertainty, high-quality modelling tools and data are essential. The drivers of land-use decisions are complex and models provide a structured methodology for investigating these. While New Zealand is fortunate to have a range of different modelling tools, these have historically been used in a sporadic and ad hoc way, and underlying datasets are deficient in some areas. As the foundation for more strategic development of New Zealand’s modelling capability, this paper profiles the main landsector and farm- and production-related models and datasets currently applied in New Zealand. It also explores priority policy areas where modelling is needed, such as achieving emission reduction targets; managing freshwater, biodiversity and soil quality; and understanding the distributional impacts of policy options as well as climate change. New Zealand’s modelling capability could be strengthened by collecting and sharing land-use data more effectively; building understanding of underlying relationships informed by primary research; creating more collaborative and transparent processes for applying common datasets, scenarios and assumptions, and conducting peer review; and conducting more integrated modelling across environmental issues. These improvements will require strategic policies and processes for refining model development, providing increased, predictable and sustained funding for modelling activity and underlying data collection and primary research, and strengthening networks across modellers inside and outside of government

This paper was prepared under Motu's Shaping New Zealand's Low-Emission Future programme, with funding support from the Ministry for Primary Industries and the Aotearoa Foundation. It was informed by the Motu Researcher Workshop on Land Use and Climate Change held in Wellington on 30 April 2018, and we gratefully acknowledge the contributions by presenters and other participants in that process. We also wish to acknowledge Susan Walker from Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, who reviewed parts of this paper. Disclaimer Contributions to the researcher workshop and this report were made in individuals' personal capacity and their inclusion in this paper does not imply any recommendation, consensus or endorsement by all participants, their affiliated organisations or the programme funders. While every effort has been made to ensure the information in this publication is accurate, the Ministry for Primary Industries does not accept any responsibility or liability for error of fact, omission, interpretation or opinion that may be present, nor for the consequences of any decisions based on this information.

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