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Abstract. Population viability analysis (PVA) has become a basic tool of current conservation practice. However, if not accounted for properly, the uncertainties inherent to PVA predictions can decrease the reliability of this type of analysis. In the present study, we performed a PVA of the whole western European population (France, Portugal, and Spain) of the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata), in which we thoroughly explored the consequences of uncertainty in population processes and parameters on PVA predictions. First, we estimated key vital rates (survival, fertility, recruitment, and dispersal rates) using monitoring, ringing, and bibliographic data from the period 1990-2009 from 12 populations found throughout the studied geographic range. Second, we evaluated the uncertainty about model structure (i.e., the assumed processes that govern individual fates and population dynamics) by comparing the observed growth rates of the studied populations with model predictions for the same period. Third, using the model structures suggested in the previous step, we assessed the viability of both the local populations and the overall population. Finally, we analyzed the effects of model and parameter uncertainty on PVA predictions. Our results strongly support the idea that all local populations in western Europe belong to a single, spatially structured population operating as a sourcesink system, whereby the populations in the south of the Iberian Peninsula act as sources and, thanks to dispersal, sustain all other local populations, which would otherwise decline. Predictions regarding population dynamics varied considerably, and models assuming more constrained dispersal predicted more pessimistic population trends than models assuming greater dispersal. Model predictions accounting for parameter uncertainty revealed a marked increase in the risk of population declines over the next 50 years. Sensitivity analyses indicated that adult and pre-adult survival are the chief vital rates regulating these populations, and thus, the conservation efforts aimed at improving these survival rates should be strengthened in order to guarantee the long-term viability of the European populations of this endangered species. Overall, the study provides a framework for the implementation of multi-site PVAs and highlights the importance of dispersal processes in shaping the population dynamics of long-lived birds distributed across heterogeneous landscapes.

Bird electrocution on power lines is an important conservation problem that affects many endangered species. We surveyed 3,869 pylons in the Barcelona Pre-littoral Mountains (Catalonia, NE Spain) and collected 141 carcasses of electrocuted birds, mainly raptors and corvids. Univariate analysis indicated that metal pylons with pin-type insulators or exposed jumpers, with connector wires, located on ridges, overhanging other landscape elements, and in open habitats with low vegetation cover were the most dangerous. A logistic regression model indicated that the probability of a pylon electrocuting a bird was mainly related to pylon conductivity, distribution of the conductive elements on the cross-arms, cross-arm configuration, habitat, topography, whether the pylon was overhanging other landscape elements, and presence of rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We validated the predictive power of this model by using a random sample of 20% of all pylons surveyed. We found that bird mortality was aggregated mainly on pylons assigned a high probability risk by the model. Pylons included in the very high electrocution risk category (9.2%) accounted for 53.2% of carcasses, whereas pylons classified in the low electrocution risk category (54.5%) only accounted for 3.5% of mortality. Power companies employed this classification to prioritize the correction of 222 pylons by installing alternate cross-arms and suspended jumpers and isolating wires and jumpers. We evaluated the effectiveness of this mitigation strategy. A significant fall in the mortality rate on corrected pylons combined with the lack of any reduction in the mortality rate in a sample of 350 noncorrected pylons indicated that the model selected adequately the most dangerous pylons and that the applied correction measures were effective. Consequently, our strategy may be a useful tool for optimizing efforts and resources invested in solving the problem of bird electrocution.

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Aim To explore the influence of an emerging infectious disease (EID) affecting a prey species on the spatial patterns and temporal shifts in the diet of a predator over a large geographical scale. We reviewed studies on the diet of Bonelli's eagles (Hieraaetus fasciatus) in order to determine the repercussions of the reduction in the density of its main prey, the rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), caused by outbreaks of rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD) since 1988.Location Western continental Europe. MethodsWe compiled published and unpublished information on the diet of breeding Bonelli's eagles from Portugal, Spain and France for a 39-year study period . Nonparametric tests were used in order to analyse temporal shifts in diet composition and trophic diversity (H¢) between the periods of 'high' (before outbreak of RHD) and 'low' rabbit density (after outbreak of RHD). A combination of hierarchical agglomerative clustering and non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) analyses were used to test for the existence of geographical patterns in the diet of Bonelli's eagles in each period. ResultsThe diet of the Bonelli's eagle consisted of rabbit (28.5%), pigeons (24.0%), partridges (15.3%), 'other birds' (11.6%), 'other mammals' (7.1%), corvids (7.0%), and herptiles (6.4%). However, RHD had large consequences for its feeding ecology: the consumption of rabbits decreased by one-third after the outbreak of RHD. Conversely, trophic diversity (H¢) increased after outbreak of RHD. At the same time, the analyses showed clear geographical patterns in the diet of the Bonelli's eagle before, but not after, RHD outbreak.Main conclusions Geographical patterns in the diet of the Bonelli's eagle in western Europe seem to be driven mainly by spatio-temporal variation in the abundance of rabbits and, to a lesser extent, by the local (territorial) environmental features conditioning the presence and density of alternative prey species. We show that an EID can disrupt predator-prey relationships at large spatial and temporal scales through a severe decline in the population of the main prey species. Hence we argue that strict guidelines should be drawn up to prevent human-aided dissemination of 'pathogen pollution', which can threaten wildlife not only at the population and species level but also at the community and ecosystem scale.