We prospectively studied kidney transplants that progressed to failure after a biopsy for clinical indications, aiming to assign a cause to every failure. We followed 315 allograft recipients who underwent indication biopsies at 6 days to 32 years posttransplant. Sixty kidneys progressed to failure in the followup period (median 31.4 months). Failure was rare after T-cell-mediated rejection and acute kidney injury and common after antibody-mediated rejection or glomerulonephritis. We developed rules for using biopsy diagnoses, HLA antibody and clinical data to explain each failure. Excluding four with missing information, 56 failures were attributed to four causes: rejection 36 (64%), glomerulonephritis 10 (18%), polyoma virus nephropathy 4 (7%) and intercurrent events 6 (11%). Every rejection loss had evidence of antibodymediated rejection by the time of failure. Among rejection losses, 17 of 36 (47%) had been independently identified as nonadherent by attending clinicians. Nonadherence was more frequent in patients who progressed to failure (32%) versus those who survived (3%). Pure T-cell-mediated rejection, acute kidney injury, drug toxicity and unexplained progressive fibrosis were not causes of loss. This prospective cohort indicates that many actual failures after indication biopsies manifest phenotypic features of antibody-mediated or mixed rejection and also underscores the major role of nonadherence.

To explore the mechanisms of antibody-mediated rejection (ABMR) in kidney transplants, we studied the transcripts expressed in clinically indicated biopsies from patients with donor-specific antibody (DSA). Comparison of biopsies from DSA-positive versus DSAnegative patients revealed 132 differentially expressed transcripts: all were associated with class II DSA but none with class I DSA. Many transcripts were expressed in DSA-positive ABMR but were also expressed in T-cell-mediated rejection (TCMR), reflecting shared molecular features. Removal of shared transcripts created 23 DSA selective transcripts (DSASTs). Some DSASTs (6/23) showed selective high expression in NK cells, whereas others (8/23) were expressed in endothelium or in endothelium plus other cell types (7/23). Of 145 biopsies ranked by DSAST expression, the 25 with highest DSAST expression primarily consisted of ABMR (22/25, 88%), either C4d-positive or C4d-negative. By immunostaining, CD56+ and CD68+ cells in peritubular capillaries, but not CD3+ cells, were increased in ABMR compared to TCMR, compatible with a role for NK cells, as well as macrophages, as effectors in endothelial injury during ABMR. Thus, the strategy of using DSASTs in the biopsy to identify mechanism-related transcripts in biopsies from patients with clinical phenotypes indicates the selective involvement of NK cells in ABMR.

Antibody-mediated rejection is the major cause of kidney transplant failure, but the histology-based diagnostic system misses most cases due to its requirement for C4d positivity. We hypothesized that gene expression data could be used to test biopsies for the presence of antibody-mediated rejection. To develop a molecular test, we prospectively assigned diagnoses, including C4d-negative antibody-mediated rejection, to 403 indication biopsies from 315 patients, based on histology (microcirculation lesions) and donorspecific HLA antibody. We then used microarray data to develop classifiers that assigned antibody-mediated rejection scores to each biopsy. The transcripts distinguishing antibody-mediated rejection from other conditions were mostly expressed in endothelial cells or NK cells, or were IFNG-inducible. The scores correlated with the presence of microcirculation lesions and donor-specific antibody. Of 45 biopsies with scores >0.5, 39 had been diagnosed as antibody-mediated rejection on the basis of histology and donor-specific antibody. High scores were also associated with unanimity among pathologists that antibody-mediated rejection was present. The molecular score also strongly predicted future graft loss in Cox regression analysis. We conclude that microarray assessment of gene expression can assign a probability of ABMR to transplant biopsies without knowledge of HLA antibody status, histology, or C4d staining, and predicts future failure.

Histologic diagnosis of T cell-mediated rejection is flawed by subjective assessments, nonspecific lesions and arbitrary rules. This study developed a molecular test for T cell-mediated rejection. We used microarray results from 403 kidney transplant biopsies to derive a classifier assigning T cell-mediated rejection scores to all biopsies, and compared these with histologic assessments. The score correlated with histologic lesions of T cell-mediated rejection (infiltrate, tubulitis). The accuracy of the classifier for the histology diagnoses was 89%. Very high and low molecular scores corresponded with unanimity among three pathologists on the presence or absence of T cell-mediated rejection, respectively. The molecular score had low sensitivity (50%) and positive predictive value (62%) for the histology diagnoses. However, histology showed similar disagreement between pathologists-only 45-56% sensitivity of one pathologist with diagnoses of T cell-mediated rejection by another. Discrepancies between molecular scores and histology were mostly when histology was ambiguous ("borderline") or unreliable, e.g. in cases with scarring or inflammation induced by tissue injury. Vasculitis (isolated v-lesion TCMR) was particularly discrepant, with most cases exhibiting low TCMR scores. We propose new rules to integrate molecular tests and histology into a precision diagnostic system that can reduce errors, ambiguity and interpathologist disagreement.