Aims
The purpose of this study was to develop a practical risk score to predict poor neurological outcome after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OOHCA) for use on arrival to a Heart Attack Centre.
Methods and results
From May 2012 to December 2017, 1055 patients had OOHCA in our region, of whom 373 patients were included in the King’s Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest Registry (KOCAR). We performed prediction modelling with multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of the primary outcome to derive a risk score. This was externally validated in two independent cohorts comprising 473 patients. The primary endpoint was poor neurological outcome at 6-month follow-up (Cerebral Performance Category 3–5). Seven independent predictors of outcome were identified: missed (unwitnessed) arrest, initial non-shockable rhythm, non-reactivity of pupils, age (60–80 years—1 point; >80 years—3 points), changing intra-arrest rhythms, low pH <7.20, and epinephrine administration (2 points). The MIRACLE2 score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.90 in the development and 0.84/0.91 in the validation cohorts. Three risk groups were defined—low risk (MIRACLE2 ≤2—5.6% risk of poor outcome); intermediate risk (MIRACLE2 of 3–4—55.4% of poor outcome); and high risk (MIRACLE2 ≥5—92.3% risk of poor outcome). The MIRACLE2 score had superior discrimination than the OHCA [median AUC 0.83 (0.818–0.840); P < 0.001] and Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis models [median AUC 0.87 (0.860–0.870; P = 0.001] and equivalent performance with the Target Temperature Management score [median AUC 0.88 (0.876–0.887); P = 0.092].
Conclusions
The MIRACLE2 is a practical risk score for early accurate prediction of poor neurological outcome after OOHCA, which has been developed for simplicity of use on admission.
IntroductionComplete foreign body airway obstruction is a life-threatening emergency, but there are limited data on its epidemiology.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of data collected routinely from London Ambulance Service calls coded as being for choking was undertaken for the calendar year of 2016.ResultsThere were 1916 choking episodes of significant severity to call for emergency assessment in London during 2016, 0.2% of total calls requiring an ambulance response, an average of 5.2 per day. The incidence increased at the extremes of age. Calls coded as choking occurred at times consistent with lunch and dinner and less frequently at breakfast. Peak incidence occurred at Sunday lunchtimes and on Wednesday evenings.ConclusionsChoking is a substantial health problem for Londoners to seek emergency assistance. Choking is more frequent at the extremes of age with a higher incidence at lunch and dinner time. Greater public awareness of choking and its management could help to prevent avoidable deaths.
Post-arrest care is time-critical, requires a multi-disciplinary approach and may be more optimally delivered in centers with greater provider experience. This trial would help to demonstrate if regionalization of post-arrest care to CACs reduces mortality in patients without STE, which could dramatically reshape emergency care provision.
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