Aim Species distribution modelling (SDM) has increasingly been used to predict palaeodistributions at regional and global scales in order to understand the response of vegetation to climate change and to estimate palaeodistributions for the testing of biogeographical hypotheses. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in SDM that may restrict the ability of models to hindcast palaeodistributions and provide a basis for hypothesis testing in molecular phylogenetics and phylogeographical studies.Location Seasonally dry forests (SDFs) in South America. MethodsWe addressed the problem of using palaeodistribution modelling for SDFs based on the projection of their current distribution into past environments (21 ka) using 11 methods for SDMs and five coupled atmosphere-ocean global circulation models (AOGCMs) for 16 species. ResultsWe observed considerable uncertainty in the hindcasts, with the most important effects for AOGCM (median 12.2%), species (median 15.6%) and their interaction (median 13.6%). The effects of AOGCMs were stronger in the Amazon region, whereas the species effect occurred primarily in the dry areas of central Brazil. The log-linear model detected significant effects of the three sources of variation and their interaction on the classification of each map in supporting alternative hypotheses. An expansion scenario combining the Pleistocene arc and Amazonian expansion, and Pennington's Amazonian expansion alone, were the most frequently supported palaeodistribution scenarios.Main conclusions As a basis for evaluating a given hypothesis, hindcast distributions must be used in direct association with other evidence, such as molecular variation and the fossil record. We propose an alternative framework concerning hypothesis testing that couples SDM and phylogeographical work, in which palaeoclimatic distributions and other sources of information, such as the pollen fossil record and coalescence modelling, must be weighted equally.

We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH, and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses ('Pleistocene Arc' and 'Amazonian SDF expansion') and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.

Aim One of the longest recognized patterns in macroecology, Bergmann's rule, describes the tendency for homeothermic animals to have larger body sizes in cooler climates than their phylogenetic relatives in warmer climates. Here we provide an integrative process-based explanation for Bergmann's rule at the global scale for the mammal order Carnivora.Location Global.Methods Our database comprises the body sizes of 209 species of extant terrestrial Carnivora, which were analysed using phylogenetic autocorrelation and phylogenetic eigenvector regression. The interspecific variation in body size was partitioned into phylogenetic (P) and specific (S) components, and mean P-and S-components across species were correlated with environmental variables and human occupation both globally and for regions glaciated or not during the last Ice Age.Results Three-quarters of the variation in body size can be explained by phylogenetic relationships among species, and the geographical pattern of mean values of the P-component is the opposite of the pattern predicted by Bergmann's rule. Partial regression revealed that at least 43% of global variation in the mean phylogenetic component is explained by current environmental factors. In contrast, the mean S-component of body size shows large positive deviations from ancestors across the Holarctic, and negative deviations in southern South America, the Sahara Desert, and tropical Asia. There is a moderately strong relationship between the human footprint and body size in glaciated regions, explaining 19% of the variance of the mean P-component. The relationship with the human footprint and the P-component is much weaker in the rest of the world, and there is no relationship between human footprint and S-component in any region.Main conclusions Bergmannian clines are stronger at higher latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because of the continuous alternation of glacialinterglacial cycles throughout the late Pliocene and Pleistocene, which generated increased species turnover, differential colonization and more intense adaptive processes soon after glaciated areas became exposed. Our analyses provide a unified explanation for an adaptive Bergmann's rule within species and for an interspecific trend towards larger body sizes in assemblages resulting from historical changes in climate and contemporary human impacts.

No abstract

No abstract