Real estate markets are frequently affected by growth and contraction cycles. Given the social and economic impacts of changes on real estate prices, the understanding of these cycles is crucial from a socio-economic perspective, but also, and more importantly, from a public policy view. The literature has provided several contributions focusing on the deconstruction of the main determinants of housing prices. This research focuses on the analysis of housing prices variation with a particular emphasis on the analysis of the impacts of the 2008 financial crisis. Within the existing body of knowledge, few studies have focused on this particular issue, and even fewer have focused on countries where the financial crisis led to an external bailout, as was the case in Portugal. The analysis confirmed that the 2008 financial crisis had a negative impact on real estate prices, and the ex-post growth in GDP and low interest rates had a positive impact. The paper also provides a long-term analysis of housing price trends over the last decades.

The increasing growth of population living in cities, associated with the commoditization of investment in real estate, has impacted real estate prices and created obstacles for average income families to meet their housing needs. This problem is generalized to virtually all cities, but it has assumed larger proportions in cities where economic activities (tourism, financial services, high-tech industry) have flourished after the financial crisis. Lisbon is one of those cases. The growth of short-term rentals led to an increase in the property prices well above the average income growth, eroding housing affordability. This paper will focus on analyzing Lisbon´s affordability and understanding its main determinants. The analysis is carried out from the compilation and processing of data from 2004 to 2019, in the context of the municipality of Lisbon, using statistical instruments of linear regression in an exploratory and predictive approach. The results suggest a great influence of factors such as tourism, the foreign population with resident status, the propagation of short-term rentals and public policies on the worsening of housing affordability. In view of these conclusions, the preponderance of the type of public policies implemented and their relationship with the most prominent factors on housing affordability is debated.

Real estate markets play a crucial role in the economy, providing opportunities for investment and housing. However, there are several challenges in both direct and indirect investment mechanisms affecting its social and financial sustainability. These challenges include high costs, lengthy processes, limited transparency, and restricted investor control. Additionally, the dominance of large investors in the market intensifies these issues, creating barriers to smaller investors. This raises concerns around social inequality and sustainability among small investors, that represent, in number, the largest share of investors. Blockchain technology has emerged as a possible solution to address these issues in the real estate sector, with the potential to improve its long term social and financial sustainability. Features such as smart contracts and tokenization can enhance efficiency, transparency, security, and accessibility in property transactions. In the case of smart contracts, these enable self-executing and automated agreements, and tokenization allows for fractional ownership and increased liquidity. To assess the knowledge and perceptions of professionals in the real estate sector and evaluate the possible impact of the technology in the market, a survey-based methodology was followed. It targeted individuals actively involved in the industry, including professionals from real estate investment companies and real estate agencies. The data revealed that most professionals in the Portuguese real estate market have little to no knowledge about blockchain technology. Yet, those who possess knowledge recognize the potential benefits it can bring to the industry. This lack of awareness can be attributed to the relatively recent emergence of blockchain and its limited discussion within the real estate sector.

PurposeFrom the perspective of housing affordability, Portugal is an interesting case study, considering that Portugal ranks 5th in terms of price-to-income ratio and has experienced, since 2015, a significant increase in real estate prices.Design/methodology/approachThe provision of housing is a critical social development factor. With the growing worldwide urbanization and the demand pressure over real estate in many cities, the problem of affordability has gained increase attention by policy makers. Housing affordability is hardly a new topic from a literature perspective, but the recent post-pandemic worldwide inflation growth has re-centered affordability as key topic in the housing agenda. This paper provides a comprehensive overview on past literature and a detailed analysis on the Portuguese market at the municipal level, by analyzing the changes in housing affordability in recent years.FindingsDespite this growth, overall, affordability has improved. The study also shows the importance of municipal-level analysis, given the significant geographical differences. The authors' study confirms that many municipalities, outside metropolitan areas, exhibit low levels of affordability. Nevertheless, markets with higher average real estate values tend to exhibit even lower affordability, outpacing the higher levels of income.Originality/valuePrevious studies have focused on affordability issues on a national or highly aggregated level or focusing only on the two largest metropolitan areas in the country. This paper provides a deeper understanding on the inequalities of housing affordability between Portuguese municipalities.

No abstract