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Ongoing global warming is disrupting several ecological and evolutionary processes, spanning different levels of biological organization. Species are expected to shift their ranges as a response to climate change, with relevant implications to peripheral populations at the trailing and leading edges. Several studies have analyzed the exposure of species to climate change but few have explored exposure at the intraspecific level. We introduce a framework to forecast exposure to climate change at the intraspecific level. We build on existing methods by combining correlative species distribution models, a model of species range dynamics, and a model of phylogeographic interpolation. We demonstrate the framework by applying it to 20 Iberian amphibian and reptile species. Our aims were to: (a) identify which species and intraspecific lineages will be most exposed to future climate change; (b) test if nucleotide diversity at the edges of species ranges are significantly higher or lower than on the overall range; and (c) analyze if areas of higher species gain, loss, and turnover coincide with those predicted for lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. We found that about 80% of the studied species are predicted to contract their range. Within each species, some lineages were predicted to contract their range, while others were predicted to maintain or expand it. Therefore, estimating the impacts of climate change at the species level only can underestimate losses at the intraspecific level. Some species had significant high amount of nucleotide at the trailing or leading edge, or both, but we did not find a consistent pattern across species. Spatial patterns of species richness, gain, loss, and turnover were fairly concurrent with lineages richness and nucleotide diversity. Our results support the need for increased attention to intraspecific diversity regarding monitoring and conservation strategies under climate change.

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Local ecosystem resilience to fire disturbance can be influenced by multiple factors, from topography and climate, to fire history and pre‐fire structure of biotic communities. Here we investigated the factors affecting post‐fire recovery of scrub vegetation in areas under Mediterranean climate affected by frequent fires. We hypothesized that, under comparable climatic and topographic conditions, geological factors (with bedrock type as a proxy) would be at least as important as fire history in explaining patterns of post‐fire recovery. We surveyed scrub vegetation in a mountain study area in Portugal, using a stratified random sampling scheme, with fire frequency, time since last fire, and bedrock type (granite vs. schist) as stratifying layers. Based on vegetation and plant community data from 40 plots, we analyzed total species richness and composition, and the relative abundance of functional groups defined on the basis of general (non fire‐specific) life‐history traits. We found that, at a local scale, lithology can override fire history in determining post‐fire recovery. Vegetation plots on granite exhibited a considerable development of tall scrubs and higher values of total species richness. They also hosted higher numbers of animal‐dispersed woody species, of trees and tall scrubs, of woody deciduous species, and of forest, edge and tall scrub species. Differences in the post‐fire development of scrub vegetation and in the functional profile of plant communities highlight the need to consider local geological diversity when establishing priorities for post‐fire active restoration under scenarios of limited resources.