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Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns.

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Insect pollinators are a key component of biodiversity; they also play a major role in the reproduction of many species of wild plants and crops. It is widely acknowledged that insect pollinators are threatened by many environmental pressures, mostly of anthropogenic nature. Their decline is a global phenomenon. A better understanding of their distribution can help their monitoring and ultimately facilitate conservation actions. Since we only have partial knowledge of where pollinator species occur, the possibility to predict suitable environmental conditions from scattered species records can facilitate not only species monitoring, but also the identification of areas potentially vulnerable to pollinators decline. This data paper contains the predicted distribution of 47 species of bumblebees across the 28 Member States of the European Union (EU-28). Amongst the wild pollinators, bumblebees are one of the major groups contributing to the production of many crop species, hence their decline in Europe, North America and Asia can potentially threaten food security. Predictions were derived from distribution models, using species records with a spatial resolution of 10 km accessed from a central repository. Predictions were based on records from 1991 to 2012 and on a series of spatial environmental predictors from three main thematic areas: land use and land cover, climate and topography. These distributions were used to estimate the value of pollination as an ecosystem service. In light of the recent European Pollinators Initiative, this paper provides valuable information for a better understanding of where wild pollinators occur and it should be extended to other pollinator species.

Non‐rewarding orchids rely on various ruses to attract their pollinators. One of the most common is for them to resemble flowers sought by insects as food sources. This can range from generalized food deception to the mimicry of specific sympatric food plants. We investigated the basis of pollinator deception in the European food‐deceptive orchid Traunsteinera globosa, which has unusually compact flowerheads resembling those of sympatric rewarding species of Knautia and Scabiosa (Dipsacaceae), and Valeriana (Caprifoliaceae). Visual signals of T. globosa are similar in both fly and bee vision models to those of the sympatric food plants used in the choice experiments, but scent signals are divergent. Field experiments conducted in Austria and the Czech Republic showed that both naive and experienced (with respect to visitation of T. globosa) insect species approached the orchids at the same rate as food plants, but direct contact with orchid flowers was taxon specific. Flies were most easily duped into probing the orchid, and, in doing so, frequently received and deposited pollinaria, whereas most bees and butterflies avoided landing on orchid flowers. We conclude that T. globosa is a mimic of a guild of fly‐pollinated plants, but the ecological dependence of the orchid on its models remains to be fully tested. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2016, 180, 269–294.