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Cores from Cascadia deep‐sea channel contain sequences of turbidites that can be correlated and dated by the first occurrence of volcanic glass from the Mount Mazama eruption (6845±50 radiocarbon yrBP). Turbidity currents from the tributaries appear to have occurred synchronously to form single deposits in the main channel, there being only 13 turbidite deposits in the lower main channel since the Mazama eruption, instead of the twice as many expected if the tributaries had behaved independently. In addition to the Cascadia Channel, 13 post‐Mazama turbidites have been deposited in the Astoria Canyon and at two sites off Cape Blanco, sample locations that span 580 km of the Oregon‐Washington margin. Pelagic intervals deposited between the turbidites suggest that in each place the turbidity currents occurred fairly regularly, every 590±170 years on average. The best explanation of the spatial and temporal extent of the data is that the turbidity currents were triggered by 13 great earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. The variability of turbidite timing is similar to that for great earthquake cycles. The thickness of the topmost pelagic layer suggests the last event was 300±60 years ago (from three places along the margin), but this number may be a biased underestimate. It is, however, consistent with the youngest sudden‐subsidence event on the Washington coast. The turbidite data demonstrate that the near‐term hazard of a great earthquake on the Cascadia subduction zone is of the order of 2–10% in the next 50 years.

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Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time‐independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science‐driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Earth Physics Branch, Energy, Mines and Resources, Ottawa, Canada KiA OY3 Abstract. Tilted and uplifted marine terraces in southern Oregon show progressive landward tilting of tne coastal ranges at about 5 -16 x 10 -8 rad. yr -1 for the last 0.25 m.y. Tide gauges in Washington and British ColumOia, and ten resurveyed leveling lines running inland from the coast, indicate contemporary landward (down-to-the-east) tilt