Appraisal of the present and future impact of climate change and climate variability on the transmission of infectious diseases is a complex but pressing public health issue. We developed a biology-driven model to assess the potential impact of rising temperature on the transmission of schistosomiasis in China. We found a temperature threshold of 15.4 degrees C for development of Schistosoma japonicum within the intermediate host snail (i.e., Oncomelania hupensis), and a temperature of 5.8 degrees C at which half the snail sample investigated was in hibernation. Historical data suggest that the occurrence of O. hupensis is restricted to areas where the mean January temperature is above 0 degrees C. The combination of these temperature thresholds, together with our own predicted temperature increases in China of 0.9 degrees C in 2030 and 1.6 degrees C in 2050 facilitated predictive risk mapping. We forecast an expansion of schistosomiasis transmission into currently non-endemic areas in the north, with an additional risk area of 783,883 km(2) by 2050, translating to 8.1% of the surface area of China. Our results call for rigorous monitoring and surveillance of schistosomiasis in a future warmer China.

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Fasciolosis, caused by Fasciola hepatica, is an endemic disease of ruminants that occurs in several countries of South America where it can lead to decreased production and fertility and, in severe cases, animal death. Although very prevalent, information on the epidemiology of the disease is incomplete in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to define the prevalence of F. hepatica in the livers of cattle from slaughterhouses and correlate the data with the animal's origin (climate and altitude) using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The data was used to create an epidemiological map of fasciolosis by state (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Paraná), by municipality (n=530) and by year (2003-2008). Information was analyzed using a databank from slaughterhouses with Federal Inspection Services of the Ministry of Agriculture. The highest cattle infection rate was found in the two most Southern states of Rio Grande do Sul (18.7%) and Santa Catarina (10.1%). Animals from the Campanha region of Rio Grande do Sul and from the central coast area of Santa Catarina had prevalences of greater than 40%. Cattle from low altitudes municipalities were significantly more likely to have the disease (p<0.05). No significant differences were found between high or low prevalence and ambient temperatures. Risk maps resulting from this study provide information on the epidemiology and transmission of F. hepatica in Southern Brazil needed for design of appropriate control measures to control economic impacts. F. hepatica may represent an important source of zoonotic infection of humans as well; therefore these findings may be complemented by future studies on human infections in high risk areas.

BackgroundStrains of Dirofilaria immitis suspected of lack of efficacy (LOE) to macrocyclic lactone (ML) preventive drugs have been increasingly reported in dogs by practicing veterinarians since 2005 in the Lower Mississippi Delta region. If proven, and not controlled in the early stages, the emergence of ML drug resistance threatens to become a widespread problem in the US that may limit the effectiveness of current preventive drug treatment methods.MethodsTo validate practice reports, a statewide survey of Louisiana veterinarians was done to define the extent of the problem and identify focal ‘hotspots’ of reported ML LOEs using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methods. The present study then utilized microfilariae (Mf) from two canine field cases from different state locations that fit criteria for a high index of suspicion of LOE against heartworms by ML drugs. Blood containing Mf from the canine field cases was used to infect and produce L3 in Aedes aegypti for experimental infection of two groups of dogs, each of which contained two laboratory dogs, one treated with prophylactic ivermectin (12 μg/kg) monthly for 6 months at twice the label dose (6 μg/kg), and one untreated control.ResultsBoth treated and untreated dogs from Group I and Group II developed patent D. immitis infections by 218 DPI and 189 DPI, respectively, as evidenced by a positive occult heartworm antigen test and microfilaremia by the Knott’s test. Mf counts gradually increased post-patency in test and control dogs. Infective larvae raised from microfilariae from the treated Group I dog were used to successfully establish a second generation isolate, confirming heritability of resistance in the face of a monthly ivermectin challenge dose of 24 μg/kg, given monthly for 3 months.ConclusionsThese experimental infection studies provide in vivo evidence of the existence of ML drug resistance in dogs infected by D. immitis L3 from suspect field LOE cases in the Lower Mississippi Delta. Results encourage further work on mechanisms underlying the emergence of ML resistance in D. immitis and development of evidence-based resistance management strategies for heartworm preventives in order to extend the useful life of current drugs.