Votes for established centre-right and centreleft political parties are falling across the developed world. Australia is not immune from this trend: in the 2016 federal election, more people voted for minor parties than at any point since the Second World War. Australia is an interesting case study for the rest of the world on the origins of populist support. Political scientists have struggled to separate the effects of cultural shifts and poor economic outcomes (low wages and rising inequality) in many countries because these shifts have occurred simultaneously. However, in Australia the economy was relatively healthy during the period of rising minor party support. Our analysis suggests that falling trust in government and a backlash against the pace of social change explain much of the collapse in support for the political mainstream.

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In Australia, both the Commonwealth and state governments are running substantial budget deficits, and future challenges are likely to make these problems worse. This paper presents the key challenges facing these budgets. Falling terms of trade and lower nominal economic growth will drag on government revenues. Spending in health and infrastructure has grown faster than GDP. State government revenues are also affected by Commonwealth decisions to reduce grants to them. We also show how the government's short-term and medium-term projections rely on overly-optimistic assumptions about organic revenue growth and spending restraint. As such, a drift back to surplus is unlikely and restoring budget sustainability will require Australian governments to make more politically difficult decisions. While containing spending is important, both the politics of budget repair and the sheer size of the budget gap means that they will not be able to bring their budgets to balance without also boosting revenues.

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