BackgroundHeatwaves present a significant health risk and the hazard is likely to escalate with the increased future temperatures presently predicted by climate change models. The impact of heatwaves is often felt strongest in towns and cities where populations are concentrated and where the climate is often unintentionally modified to produce an urban heat island effect; where urban areas can be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. The purpose of this interdisciplinary study is to integrate remotely sensed urban heat island data alongside commercial social segmentation data via a spatial risk assessment methodology in order to highlight potential heat health risk areas and build the foundations for a climate change risk assessment. This paper uses the city of Birmingham, UK as a case study area.ResultsWhen looking at vulnerable sections of the population, the analysis identifies a concentration of "very high" risk areas within the city centre, and a number of pockets of "high risk" areas scattered throughout the conurbation. Further analysis looks at household level data which yields a complicated picture with a considerable range of vulnerabilities at a neighbourhood scale.ConclusionsThe results illustrate that a concentration of "very high" risk people live within the urban heat island, and this should be taken into account by urban planners and city centre environmental managers when considering climate change adaptation strategies or heatwave alert schemes. The methodology has been designed to be transparent and to make use of powerful and readily available datasets so that it can be easily replicated in other urban areas.

ABSTRACT:The last decade has seen a considerable increase in the amount and availability of remotely sensed data. This paper reviews the satellites, sensors and studies relevant to land surface temperature measurements in the context of meteorology and climatology. The focus is on using the thermal infrared part of the electromagnetic spectrum for useful measurements of land surface temperature, which can be beneficial for a number of uses, for example urban heat island measurements.

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.

This study investigates the summer (June, July, August) night urban heat island (UHI) of Birmingham, the UK's second most populous city. Land surface temperature remote sensing data is used from the MODIS sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite, combined with UK Met Office station data to map the average variation in heat island intensity over the Birmingham conurbation. Results are presented of average UHI events over four Pasquill-Gifford stability classes D, E, F, and G between 2003 and 2009, as well as a specific heatwave event in July 2006. The results quantify the magnitude of the Birmingham surface UHI as well as the impact of atmospheric stability on UHI development. During periods of high atmospheric stability, a UHI of the order of 5°C is evident with a clear peak in the central business district. Also identified, are significant cold spots in the conurbation. In one city park, recorded surface temperatures are up to 7°C lower than the city centre.

In order to decide whether or not a weather service supplier is giving good value for money we need to monitor the quality of the forecasts and the use that is made of the forecasts to estimate their value. A number of verification statistics are examined to measure the quality of forecasts –including Miss Rate, False Alarm Rate, the Peirce Skill Score and the Odds Ratio Skill Score –and a means of testing the significance of these values is presented. In order to assess the economic value of the forecasts a value index is suggested that takes into account the cost‐loss ratio and forecast errors. It is suggested that a combination of these quality and value statistics could be used by weather forecast customers to choose the best forecast provider and to set limits for performance related contracts. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society