Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015–2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.

The goal of the Data Integration and Predictive Analysis System (IPAS) is to enable prediction, analysis, and response management for incidents of infectious diseases. IPAS collects and integrates comprehensive datasets of previous disease incidents and potential influencing factors to facilitate multivariate, predictive analysis of disease patterns, intensity, and timing. We have used the IPAS technology to generate successful forecasts for Influenza Like Illness (ILI). In this study, IPAS was expanded to forecast Dengue fever in the cities of San Juan, Puerto Rico and Iquitos, Peru. Data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) was processed and used to generate prediction models. Predictions were developed with modern machine learning algorithms, identifying the one-week and four-week forecast of Dengue incidences in each city. Prediction model results are presented along with the features of the IPAS system.

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