a b s t r a c tThis paper examines profitable trading strategies that jointly exploit momentum and reversal signals in commodity futures. While the single-sort momentum strategies returns 11.14% per annum, on average, a consistent reversal pattern of momentum profits is pronounced from 12 to 30 months after portfolio formation. Combining the observed reversal pattern with the momentum signal, our double-sort strategy returns 20.24% per annum, which significantly outperforms single-sort strategies. The proposed strategy is robust to seasonality effects and sample adjustments in commodity futures. The profitability of the double-sort strategy cannot be explained by standard risk factors, term structure, market volatility, investor sentiment, data-mining or transaction costs, but appears to be related to global funding liquidity. As a consequence, the double-sort strategy in commodity futures may be employed as a portfolio diversification tool.

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This paper is the first to investigate empirically the link between carbon prices and macro risks in China's cap-and-trade pilot scheme. Using data from four pilot markets in Beijing, Guangdong, Hubei, and Shenzhen from 2014 to 2016, we demonstrate that the carbon price in Hubei is weakly linked to international prices of natural gas. Our results also indicate that energy, utilities, industrial and materials sector indices are positively related to the allowance prices in Shenzhen and Guangdong, suggesting that higher emitters in the region may have factored the carbon price into their production mix. We find no statistically significant relationship in the Beijing pilot. Overall, the findings suggest that China's carbon market is currently in an early stage of development, as the carbon price fundamentals are weak and the markets are comparatively less efficient than the European trading scheme in an informational sense. The findings of the paper have policy implications for the upcoming integration of regional markets into the national carbon market.

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We investigate the behavior of commodity futures risk premia in China. In the presence of retail‐dominance and barriers‐to‐entry, the term structure and momentum premia remain persistent, whereas hedging pressure, skewness, volatility, and liquidity premia are distorted by time‐varying margins and strict position limits. Furthermore, open interest, currency, and inflation premia are sensitive to institutional settings. The observed premia cannot be attributed to common risks, sentiment, transactions costs, or data‐snooping, but are related to liquidity, anchoring, and regulation‐induced limits‐to‐arbitrage. We highlight the distinctive features of Chinese futures markets and assess the challenges posed to theories of commodity risk premia.