The Department of Defense is experimenting with rapid acquisition strategies intended to deliver new capabilities in 2-5 years. There are few historical examples of programs achieving such cycle times -the duration from program start to initial operational capability within such short durations. This paper summarizes recent research between strategy decisions during program development and eventual program durations. Regression models are developed providing initial estimates of program schedule durations and growth from a few planning decisions. Program offices may use similar models and relationships as part of setting realistic program schedule expectations.

The Department of Defense (DoD) is experimenting with acquisition strategies intended to deliver new capabilities in cycle times of 2 to 5 years. These are executed in a market of few sellers, limited procurement quantities, and constrained budgets. Defense contractors respond by developing, producing, and supporting products. This research analyzed selected publicly‐released acquisition program data from 2007 to 2018.  Quantitative methods identified significant factors and analyzed how acquisition strategy decisions and market conditions are related to these factors. Outcomes important to the government such as shorter cycle times are shown to be statistically associated with early government strategy decisions such as agile software development, and intentional use of commercial technology. Defense contractor responses within this market are related to government programmatic factors and not to reduced cycle times.