No abstract

Background and Purpose— In randomized trials of symptomatic carotid endarterectomy, only modest benefit occurred in patients with moderate stenosis and important subgroups experienced no benefit. Carotid plaque 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose uptake on positron emission tomography, reflecting inflammation, independently predicts recurrent stroke. We investigated if a risk score combining stenosis and plaque 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose would improve the identification of early recurrent stroke. Methods— We derived the score in a prospective cohort study of recent (<30 days) non-severe (modified Rankin Scale score ≤3) stroke/transient ischemic attack. We derived the SCAIL (symptomatic carotid atheroma inflammation lumen-stenosis) score (range, 0–5) including 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose standardized uptake values (SUV max <2 g/mL, 0 points; SUV max 2–2.99 g/mL, 1 point; SUV max 3–3.99 g/mL, 2 points; SUV max ≥4 g/mL, 3 points) and stenosis (<50%, 0 points; 50%–69%, 1 point; ≥70%, 2 points). We validated the score in an independent pooled cohort of 2 studies. In the pooled cohorts, we investigated the SCAIL score to discriminate recurrent stroke after the index stroke/transient ischemic attack, after positron emission tomography-imaging, and in mild or moderate stenosis. Results— In the derivation cohort (109 patients), recurrent stroke risk increased with increasing SCAIL score ( P =0.002, C statistic 0.71 [95% CI, 0.56–0.86]). The adjusted (age, sex, smoking, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, antiplatelets, and statins) hazard ratio per 1-point SCAIL increase was 2.4 (95% CI, 1.2–4.5, P =0.01). Findings were confirmed in the validation cohort (87 patients, adjusted hazard ratio, 2.9 [95% CI, 1.9–5], P <0.001; C statistic 0.77 [95% CI, 0.67–0.87]). The SCAIL score independently predicted recurrent stroke after positron emission tomography-imaging (adjusted hazard ratio, 4.52 [95% CI, 1.58–12.93], P =0.005). Compared with stenosis severity (C statistic, 0.63 [95% CI, 0.46–0.80]), prediction of post-positron emission tomography stroke recurrence was improved with the SCAIL score (C statistic, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.66–0.97], P =0.04). Findings were confirmed in mild or moderate stenosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.74 [95% CI, 1.39–5.39], P =0.004). Conclusions— The SCAIL score improved the identification of early recurrent stroke. Randomized trials are needed to test if a combined stenosis-inflammation strategy improves selection for carotid revascularization where benefit is currently uncertain.

Background Recent randomised trials showed benefit for anti-inflammatory therapies in coronary disease but excluded stroke. The prognostic value of blood inflammatory markers after stroke is uncertain and guidelines do not recommend their routine measurement for risk stratification. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies investigating the association of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and fibrinogen and risk of recurrent stroke or major vascular events (MVEs). We searched EMBASE and Ovid Medline until 10/1/19. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed for studies reporting comparable effect measures. Results Of 2,515 reports identified, 39 met eligibility criteria (IL-6, n = 10; CRP, n = 33; fibrinogen, n = 16). An association with recurrent stroke was reported in 12/26 studies (CRP), 2/11 (fibrinogen) and 3/6 (IL-6). On random-effects meta-analysis of comparable studies, CRP was associated with an increased risk of recurrent stroke [pooled hazard ratio (HR) per 1 standard-deviation (SD) increase in loge-CRP (1.14, 95% CI 1.06–1.22, p < 0.01)] and MVEs (pooled HR 1.21, CI 1.10–1.34, p < 0.01). Fibrinogen was also associated with recurrent stroke (HR 1.26, CI 1.07–1.47, p < 0.01) and MVEs (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.15–1.49, p < 0.01). Trends were identified for IL-6 for recurrent stroke (HR per 1-SD increase 1.17, CI 0.97–1.41, p = 0.10) and MVEs (HR 1.22, CI 0.96–1.55, p = 0.10). Conclusion Despite evidence suggesting an association between inflammatory markers and post-stroke vascular recurrence, substantial methodological heterogeneity was apparent between studies. Individual-patient pooled analysis and standardisation of methods are needed to determine the prognostic role of blood inflammatory markers and to improve patient selection for randomised trials of inflammatory therapies.

Objective:To determine whether carotid plaque inflammation identified by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18FDG)-PET is associated with late (5-year) recurrent stroke.Methods:We did an individual-participant data pooled analysis of three prospective studies with near-identical study methods. Eligible patients had recent non-severe (modified Rankin Score ≤3) ischaemic stroke/TIA and ipsilateral carotid stenosis (50-99%). Participants underwent carotid 18FDG-PET/CT angiography ≤14 days after recruitment. 18FDG uptake was expressed as maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) in the axial single hottest slice of symptomatic plaque. We calculated the previously-validated Symptomatic Carotid Atheroma Inflammation Lumen-stenosis (SCAIL) score, which incorporates a measure of stenosis severity and 18FDG uptake. The primary outcome was 5-year recurrent ipsilateral ischaemic stroke after PET imaging.Results:Of 183 eligible patients, 181 patients completed follow-up (98.9%). The median duration of follow-up was 4.9 years (interquartile range 3.3-6.4, cumulative follow-up period 901.8 patient-years). After PET imaging, 17 patients had a recurrent ipsilateral ischemic strokes at 5 years (recurrence rate 9.4%, 95% CI 5.6-14.6%). Baseline plaque SUVmax independently predicted 5-year ipsilateral recurrent stroke after adjustment for age, gender, carotid revascularization, stenosis severity, NIH Stroke Scale, and diabetes mellitus (adjusted HR 1.98; 95 % CI, 1.10-3.56, p=0.02, per 1g/mL increase SUVmax). On multivariable Cox regression, SCAIL score predicted 5-year ipsilateral stroke (adjusted HR 2.73 per 1-point increase; 95% CI 1.52-4.90, p=0.001).Conclusion:Plaque inflammation-related 18FDG uptake improved identification of 5-year recurrent ipsilateral ischaemic stroke. Addition of plaque inflammation to current selection strategies may target patients most likely to have late as well as early benefit from carotid revascularization.Classification of Evidence:This study provides Class I evidence that in individuals with recent ischemic stroke/TIA and ipsilateral carotid stenosis, carotid plaque inflammation-related 18FDG uptake on PET/CT angiography was associated with 5-year recurrent ipsilateral stroke.