No abstract

A catastrophic debris flow in the Rishiganga and Dhauli ganga river in Uttarakhand, India on 7th February 2021 left a trail of disaster. Around 200 people lost their lives, two hydro-power project were badly damaged and a bridge across the Rishiganga River was washed off in the event. Study shows that the debris flow is caused due detachment of 0.59 km2 right lobe of a hanging glacier and resultant ice-rock avalanche. This right lobe of the glacier was located over a mountain slope having an average slope of 35o at 4700–5555 m a.s.l. and travelled 12.4 km before hitting the infrastructure projects. Role of precipitation, snow cover, land surface temperature and permafrost processes were investigated for identifying causes of the event. Since 2012, monsoon precipitation and mean annual land surface temperature (LST) showed significant increasing trend. Snow cover during monsoon months showed increasing trend and September, October and November experienced decreasing trend at glacier elevations. Mean annual LST increased from − 0.3 oC in 2012 to a peak of 0.4 oC in 2016. Central lobe of the glacier advanced during this period and eventually fell off in 2016 suggesting that the LST warming forced reduction of frictional drag at the interface facilitating it advancement and eventual dislodgement. Permafrost modelling suggest warm permafrost below 50 m and conditions favorable for intense frost cracking at to 10–15 m. At ~ 40 m depth, the delayed response of 2012–2016 warming produced peak positive temperature conditions by December and probably facilitated the formation of thin film of water at the deeper layers acting as a lubricant for glacier sliding. It is also suggested that the increase in summer precipitation might have forced thickening of the accumulation area and thereby increasing the shear stress for sliding of the glacier. It is proposed that the recent change in the weather conditions in the region is primarily responsible for this event through geological, glaciological and permafrost processes. Flood modeling study suggest a flood volume of ~ 10 MCM generating 24.5 m flow depth at the bridge site with 12.7 m/s flow velocity. The event highlighted the need for improved monitoring of the cryospheric areas of the Himalaya to capture the early warning signs for better preparedness.

Abstract. Recent studies have shown the cold and arid trans-Himalayan region comprises significant areas underlain by permafrost. While the information on the permafrost characteristics of this region started emerging, the governing energy regime is of particular interest. This paper presents the results of a surface energy balance (SEB) study carried out in the upper Ganglass catchment in the Ladakh region of India which feeds directly into the Indus River. The point-scale SEB is estimated using the 1D mode of the GEOtop model for the period of 1 September 2015 to 31 August 2017 at 4727 m a.s.l. elevation. The model is evaluated using field-monitored snow depth variations (accumulation and melting), outgoing long-wave radiation and near-surface ground temperatures and showed good agreement with the respective simulated values. For the study period, the SEB characteristics of the study site show that the net radiation (29.7 W m−2) was the major component, followed by sensible heat flux (−15.6 W m−2), latent heat flux (−11.2 W m−2) and ground heat flux (−0.5 W m−2). During both years, the latent heat flux was highest in summer and lowest in winter, whereas the sensible heat flux was highest in post-winter and gradually decreased towards the pre-winter season. During the study period, snow cover builds up starting around the last week of December, facilitating ground cooling during almost 3 months (October to December), with sub-zero temperatures down to −20 ∘C providing a favourable environment for permafrost. It is observed that the Ladakh region has a very low relative humidity in the range of 43 % compared to e.g. ∼70 % in the European Alps, resulting in lower incoming long-wave radiation and strongly negative net long-wave radiation averaging ∼-90 W m−2 compared to −40 W m−2 in the European Alps. Hence, land surfaces at high elevation in cold and arid regions could be overall colder than the locations with higher relative humidity, such as the European Alps. Further, it is found that high incoming short-wave radiation during summer months in the region may be facilitating enhanced cooling of wet valley bottom surfaces as a result of stronger evaporation.

No abstract

A catastrophic debris flow in the Rishiganga and Dhauliganga rivers in Uttarakhand, India, on 7 February 2021 left a trail of disaster. Around 100-150 people lost their lives according to Uttarakhand Chief Secretary statement given to ANI news portal, two hydropower projects were badly damaged and a bridge across the Rishiganga River was washed off in the event. Study shows that the debris flow is caused due to detachment of 0.59 km 2 right lobe of a hanging glacier and resultant ice-rock avalanche. This right lobe of the glacier was located over a mountain slope having an average slope of 35° at 4700-5555 m a.s.l. and travelled 12.4 km before hitting the infrastructure projects. Role of precipitation, snow cover, land surface temperature, and permafrost processes were investigated for identifying causes of the event. Since 2012, monsoon precipitation and mean annual land surface temperature (LST) showed significant increasing trend. Snow cover during monsoon months showed increasing trend and September, October and November experienced decreasing trend at glacier elevations. Mean annual LST increased from − 0.3 °C in 2012 to a peak of 0.4 °C in 2016. Central lobe of the glacier advanced during this period and eventually fell off in 2016 suggesting that the LST warming forced reduction of frictional drag at the interface facilitating it advancement and eventual dislodgement. Permafrost modelling suggests warm permafrost below 50 m and conditions favourable for intense frost cracking up to 10-15 m. At ~ 40 m depth, the delayed response of 2012-2016 warming produced peak positive temperature conditions by December and probably facilitated the formation of thin film of water at the deeper layers acting as a lubricant for glacier sliding. It is also suggested that the increase in summer precipitation might have forced thickening of the accumulation area and thereby increasing the shear stress for sliding of the glacier. It is proposed that the recent change in the weather conditions in the region is primarily responsible for this event through geological, glaciological, and permafrost processes. Flood modelling study suggests a flood volume of ~ 10 MCM generating 24.5 m flow depth at the bridge site with 12.7 m/s flow velocity. The event highlighted the need for improved monitoring of the cryosphere areas of the Himalaya to capture the early warning signs for better preparedness.