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Abstract. It has become increasingly common for researchers to utilize methods that identify weather features in climate models. There is an increasing recognition that the uncertainty associated with choice of detection method may affect our scientific understanding. For example, results from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) indicate that there are a broad range of plausible atmospheric river (AR) detectors, and that scientific results can depend on the algorithm used. There are similar examples from the literature on extratropical cyclones and tropical cyclones. It is therefore imperative to develop detection techniques that explicitly quantify the uncertainty associated with the detection of events. We seek to answer the question: given a ‘plausible’ AR detector, how does uncertainty in the detector quantitatively impact scientific results? We develop a large dataset of global AR counts, manually identified by a set of 8 researchers with expertise in atmospheric science, which we use to constrain parameters in a novel AR detection method. We use a Bayesian framework to sample from the set of AR detector parameters that yield AR counts similar to the expert database of AR counts; this yields a set of 'plausible' AR detectors from which we can assess quantitative uncertainty. This probabilistic AR detector has been implemented in the Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis (TECA), which allows for efficient processing of petabyte-scale datasets. We apply the TECA Bayesian AR Detector, TECA-BARD v1.0, to the MERRA2 reanalysis and show that the sign of the correlation between global AR count and El Nino Southern Oscillation depends on the set of parameters used.

Person-centred planning is one important tool in making the culture change necessary to realize the Government's promise in Valuing People. Some potential dangers in large scale implementation are identi®ed, a logic for local action is described, the criteria for effective person-centred planning are de®ned in terms of supporting personal choice, the contribution of person-centred planning to organizational culture change is identi®ed, the possibility of failure to implement policy change is acknowledged, and the potential bene®ts of person-centred planning under conditions of policy failure is described.

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