Abstract:We examined the influence of abiotic drivers on inter-annual and phenological patterns of aboveground biomass for Marsh Cordgrass, Spartina alterniflora, on the Central Georgia Coast. The linkages between drivers and plant response via soil edaphic factors are captured in our graphical conceptual model. We used geospatial techniques to scale up in situ measurements of aboveground S. alterniflora biomass to landscape level estimates using 294 Landsat 5 TM scenes acquired between 1984 and 2011. For each scene we extracted data from the same 63 sampling polygons, containing 1222 pixels covering about 1.1 million m 2 . Using univariate and multiple regression tests, we compared Landsat derived biomass estimates for three S. alterniflora size classes against a suite of abiotic drivers. River discharge, total precipitation, minimum temperature, and mean sea level had positive relationships with and best explained biomass for all dates. Additional results, using seasonally binned data, indicated biomass was responsive to changing combinations of variables across the seasons. Our 28-year analysis revealed aboveground biomass declines of 33%, 35%, and 39% for S. alterniflora tall, medium, and short size classes, respectively. This decline correlated with drought frequency and severity trends and coincided with marsh die-backs events and increased snail herbivory in the second half of the study period.

Understanding the complex and unpredictable ways ecosystems are changing and predicting the state of ecosystems and the services they will provide in the future requires coordinated, long-term research. This paper is a product of a U.S. National Science Foundation funded Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network synthesis effort that addressed anticipated changes in future populations and communities. Each LTER site described what their site would look like in 50 or 100 yr based on long-term patterns and responses to global change drivers in each ecosystem. Common themes emerged and predictions were grouped into state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. Here, we report on the "state change" theme, which includes examples from the Georgia Coastal (coastal marsh), Konza Prairie (mesic grassland), Luquillo (tropical forest), Sevilleta (arid grassland), and Virginia Coastal (coastal grassland) sites. Ecological thresholds (the point at which small changes in an environmental driver can produce an abrupt and persistent state change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon) were most commonly predicted. For example, in coastal ecosystems, sea-level rise and climate change could convert salt marsh to mangroves and coastal barrier dunes to shrub thicket. Reduced fire frequency has converted grassland to shrubland in mesic prairie, whereas overgrazing combined with drought drive shrub encroachment in arid grasslands. Lastly, tropical cloud forests are susceptible to climate-induced changes in cloud base altitude leading to shifts in species distributions. Overall, these examples reveal that state change is a likely outcome of global environmental change across a diverse range of ecosystems and highlight the need for long-term studies to sort out the causes and consequences of state change. The diversity of sites within the LTER network facilitates the emergence of overarching concepts about state changes as an important driver of ecosystem structure, function, services, and futures.