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Drainage basins in many parts of the world are ungauged or poorly gauged, and in some cases existing measurement networks are declining. The problem is compounded by the impacts of human-induced changes to the land surface and climate, occurring at the local, regional and global scales. Predictions of ungauged or poorly gauged basins under these conditions are highly uncertain. The IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins, or PUB, is a new initiative launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), aimed at formulating and implementing appropriate science programmes to engage and energize the scientific community, in a coordinated manner, towards achieving major advances in the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins. The PUB scientific programme focuses on the estimation of predictive uncertainty, and its subsequent reduction, as its central theme. A general hydrological prediction system contains three components: (a) a model that describes the key processes of interest, (b) a set of parameters that represent those landscape properties that govern critical processes, and (c) appropriate M. Sivapalan et al. 858 meteorological inputs (where needed) that drive the basin response. Each of these three components of the prediction system, is either not known at all, or at best known imperfectly, due to the inherent multi-scale space-time heterogeneity of the hydrological system, especially in ungauged basins. PUB will therefore include a set of targeted scientific programmes that attempt to make inferences about climatic inputs, parameters and model structures from available but inadequate data and process knowledge, at the basin of interest and/or from other similar basins, with robust measures of the uncertainties involved, and their impacts on predictive uncertainty. Through generation of improved understanding, and methods for the efficient quantification of the underlying multi-scale heterogeneity of the basin and its response, PUB will inexorably lead to new, innovative methods for hydrological predictions in ungauged basins in different parts of the world, combined with significant reductions of predictive uncertainty. In this way, PUB will demonstrate the value of data, as well as provide the information needed to make predictions in ungauged basins, and assist in capacity building in the use of new technologies. This paper presents a summary of the science and implementation plan of PUB, with a call to the hydrological community to participate actively in the realization of these goals.Key words drainage basins; predictions; uncertainty; heterogeneity; gauging; hydrological models; hydrological theory; field experiments La décennie de l'AISH sur les prévisions en bassins non jaugés (PBNJ), 2003-2012: émergence d'un futur passionnant pour les sciences hydrologiquesRésumé Les bassins versants de drainage de nombreuses régions du monde sont peu ou pas du tout jaugés, et dans certains cas les réseaux de mesures existants sont en déclin. Le problème est compliq...

Abstract:After a programme of integrated field and modelling research, hydrological processes of considerable uncertainty such as snow redistribution by wind, snow interception, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into frozen soils, hillslope water movement over permafrost, actual evaporation, and radiation exchange to complex surfaces have been described using physically based algorithms. The cold regions hydrological model (CRHM) platform, a flexible object-oriented modelling system was devised to incorporate these algorithms and others and to connect them for purposes of simulating the cold regions hydrological cycle over small to medium sized basins. Landscape elements in CRHM can be linked episodically in process-specific cascades via blowing snow transport, overland flow, organic layer subsurface flow, mineral interflow, groundwater flow, and streamflow. CRHM has a simple user interface but no provision for calibration; parameters and model structure are selected based on the understanding of the hydrological system; as such the model can be used both for prediction and for diagnosis of the adequacy of hydrological understanding. The model is described and demonstrated in basins from the semi-arid prairie to boreal forest, mountain and muskeg regions of Canada where traditional hydrological models have great difficulty in describing hydrological phenomena. Some success is shown in simulating various elements of the hydrological cycle without calibration; this is encouraging for predicting hydrology in ungauged basins.

[1] Thirty-three snowpack models of varying complexity and purpose were evaluated across a wide range of hydrometeorological and forest canopy conditions at five Northern Hemisphere locations, for up to two winter snow seasons. Modeled estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) or depth were compared to observations at forest and open sites at each location. Precipitation phase and duration of above-freezing air temperatures are shown to be major influences on divergence and convergence of modeled estimates of the subcanopy snowpack. When models are considered collectively at all locations, comparisons with observations show that it is harder to model SWE at forested sites than open sites. There is no universal ''best'' model for all sites or locations, but comparison of the consistency of individual model performances relative to one another at different sites (and vice versa). Calibration of models at forest sites provides lower errors than uncalibrated models at three out of four locations. However, benefits of calibration do not translate to subsequent years, and benefits gained by models calibrated for forest snow processes are not translated to open conditions.