No abstract

This paper contributes to the trade–development nexus by investigating the link between trade integration and economic well-being in the developing eight (D-8) countries comprising Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Turkiye. Essentially, this paper examined how trade openness, financial openness, and the exchange rate contributed to gross national income (GNI) per capita (a proxy for economic well-being). The panel data obtained from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the World Bank’s World Development Indicator (WDI), and the Chinn-Ito index between 2005 and 2021 were analysed using the two-step generalized method of moments (GMM), panel unit root, and Rao cointegration, among others. Evidence of a long-run relationship among the variables was established from the Kao cointegration test results at the 5 per cent significance level. This suggests that trade integration has a forecasting ability for economic well-being in the D-8 countries. The results of the two-step GMM revealed that trade openness significantly enhanced the economic well-being of the D-8 countries. This finding explains that cross-border trade among the members of the D-8 countries plays a substantial role in improving the standard of living of the population. Similarly, the results showed that as the degree of financial openness grew, economic well-being improved significantly. However, the results further revealed that exchange rate depreciation had an insignificant negative effect on economic well-being. Given the findings, this paper recommends that policymakers in the D-8 countries should synergise to implement a non-restrictive trade policy, gradually collapse the barriers to financial openness, and promote exchange rate stability to create more opportunities for economic development.

No abstract

This study deepens the understanding of the dynamic relationship between trinity policy trade-offs and GNI per capita in Nigeria between 1980 and 2020. The external reserve is introduced to the empirical model in recognition of its role in stimulating the effectiveness of trinity policy goals. Data for the variables were sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics, CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank World Development Indicators (WDI) among others. Descriptive statistics, Phillips-Perron unit root test, bounds cointegration and ARDL model as well as Tado-Yamamoto causality form basis for data analysis. The unit root test results reveal that the variables are mixed integrated. This necessitates the application of the bounds cointegration test. As observed from the results, a long-run relationship exists between GNI per capita and trinity policy indexes. It was found from the ARDL estimates that monetary autonomy and capital mobility have a significant positive effect on GNI per capita in both the short and long run. This suggests that more monetary policy sovereignty and openness of the financial architecture yield positive benefits of improved living standard. The result further showed evidence of long-run causality flowing from external reserve to GNI per capita. This finding explains why policymakers in Nigeria have continued to prioritize external reserve build-up for sterilized intervention and stimulating policy effectiveness. Given the findings, this study recommends that policymakers should strive to maintain appreciable monetary autonomy and gradually collapse restrictions on cross-border capital flows to improve economic well-being in Nigeria.