Summary 1.After its initial discovery in Macedonia in 1985, during the last 19 years the leafminer moth Cameraria ohridella has invaded most of Central and Western Europe. The species, which causes aesthetic damage to horse chestnuts, is generally observed first in highly populated locations before colonizing the countryside. This pattern is consistent with a stratified dispersal process combining long-distance movements and local diffusion. 2. Using large-scale spatial data on damage caused by Cameraria ohridella in Germany, three stochastic spatial models of spread are compared: a diffusion model, a leptokurtic dispersal model and a stratified dispersal model that assumes a two-scale dispersal process. In addition, the association between human population and moth invasion is tested in this last model by linking long-distance infestation probability to human population density. Finally, these spatial models constructed with data from Germany are tested at the European scale and compared to historical records of first occurrence. 3. The fat-tailed dispersal kernel models (leptokurtic and stratified dispersal models) allowing for long-distance dispersal provide better predictions than the diffusion model. Among these models, the stratified dispersal model incorporating the effect of human population density provides the best description of the spread of Cameraria ohridella in Germany in predictive (lowest sum of squared errors) and qualitative (similar fractal dimension) terms. 4. The roles of short-distance and long-distance dispersal in Cameraria ohridella invasion ecology in relation to human population are discussed, together with the models' scale-dependence and limitations.

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In large parts of Europe horse chestnut trees (Aesculus hippocastanum) suffer from severe defoliation by an alien invasive species, the specialist leaf mining moth Cameraria ohridella (Lepidoptera; Gracillariidae). Heavily infested trees have a drastically shortened period for photosynthesis. We quantified the effect of moth infestation on reproduction of horse chestnut trees in two different cities in central Europe, Bern and Munich. C. ohridella negatively affected seed and fruit weight of A. hippocastanum at both locations. In Munich, seed weight of heavily damaged trees was reduced by almost half. However, the number of seeds per fruit, the number of fruits per inflorescence, and the number of inflorescences per tree did not change due to herbivory. We conclude that C. ohridella mining affects seed quality but not seed quantity. The reduced seed weight may severely impair growth and survival of horse chestnut seedlings and thus may endanger the long-term persistence of A. hippocastanum in its endemic forests in south-east Europe.

Summary 1.Biological invasions have an anthropogenic origin, and although many species are able to spread on their own within the newly invaded area, long-distance dispersal events shown to accelerate rates of spread are frequently associated with human activities. In a previous study, the performances of several invasion models of the spread of the horse chestnut leafminer Cameraria ohridella in Germany were compared, demonstrating that the best model in qualitative and quantitative terms was a stratified dispersal model taking into account the effect of human population density on the probability of long-distance dispersal events. 2. Similar data were collected in France over 4 years (2000 -2004, 5274 observation points). These data were used to assess the performance of the best-fit models from Germany using the original parameters and to model the spread of the leafminer in France. 3. The stratified dispersal model accounting for variations in human population density developed in Germany, predicted the invasion of France with a similar level of predictive power as in the area where it was developed. This suggests that an equivalent level of predictability can be expected in a newly invaded country with similar environmental conditions. 4. We applied the model to forecast the future invasion dynamics in the UK from 2005 to 2008, based on the first observations of Cameraria in the country in [2002][2003][2004]. Predictions are discussed in the light of different prevailing environmental conditions. 5. Synthesis and application . The model and predictions developed in this study provide one of the few examples of an a priori model of invasion in a newly invaded country, and provide a simple modelling framework that can be used to explore the spread of other invading organisms. In the case of Cameraria , little can be done to prevent or slow its spread but our model, by predicting changes in distribution and rates of spread, provides fore-warning of where and when damaging pest populations are likely to appear.

The enemy release hypothesis posits that the initial success of invasive species depends on the scarcity and poor adaptation of native natural enemies such as predators and parasitoids. As for parasitoids, invading hosts are first attacked at low rates by a species-poor complex of mainly generalist species. Over the years, however, parasitoid richness may increase either because the invading host continuously encounters new parasitoid species during its spread (geographic spread-hypothesis) or because local parasitoids need different periods of time to adapt to the novel host (adjustment-hypothesis). Both scenarios should result in a continuous increase of parasitoid richness over time. In this study, we reconstructed the development of the hymenopteran parasitoid complex of the invasive leafminer Cameraria ohridella (Lepidoptera, Gracillariidae). Our results show that the overall parasitism rate increases as a function of host residence time as well as geographic and climatic factors, altogether reflecting the historic spread of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article contains supplementary material