Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

Individuals with psychiatric disorders have elevated rates of autoimmune comorbidity and altered immune signaling. It is unclear whether these altered immunological states have a shared genetic basis with those psychiatric disorders. The present study sought to use existing summary-level data from previous genome-wide association studies (GWASs) to determine if commonly varying single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are shared between psychiatric and immune-related phenotypes. We estimated heritability and examined pair-wise genetic correlations using the linkage disequilibrium score regression (LDSC) and heritability estimation from summary statistics (HESS) methods. Using LDSC, we observed significant genetic correlations between immune-related disorders and several psychiatric disorders, including anorexia nervosa, attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder, bipolar disorder, major depression, obsessive compulsive disorder, schizophrenia, smoking behavior, and Tourette syndrome. Loci significantly mediating genetic correlations were identified for schizophrenia when analytically paired with Crohn’s disease, primary biliary cirrhosis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and ulcerative colitis. We report significantly correlated loci and highlight those containing genome-wide associations and candidate genes for respective disorders. We also used the LDSC method to characterize genetic correlations amongst the immune-related phenotypes. We discuss our findings in the context of relevant genetic and epidemiological literature, as well as the limitations and caveats of the study.

Transcriptome-wide screens of peripheral blood during the onset and development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) indicate widespread immune dysregulation. However, little is known as to whether biological sex and the type of traumatic event influence shared or distinct biological pathways in PTSD. We performed a combined analysis of five independent PTSD blood transcriptome studies covering seven types of trauma in 229 PTSD and 311 comparison individuals to synthesize the extant data. Analyses by trauma type revealed a clear pattern of PTSD gene expression signatures distinguishing interpersonal (IP)-related traumas from combat-related traumas. Co-expression network analyses integrated all data and identified distinct gene expression perturbations across sex and modes of trauma in PTSD, including one wound-healing module downregulated in men exposed to combat traumas, one IL-12-mediated signaling module upregulated in men exposed to IP-related traumas, and two modules associated with lipid metabolism and mitogen-activated protein kinase activity upregulated in women exposed to IP-related traumas. Remarkably, a high degree of sharing of transcriptional dysregulation across sex and modes of trauma in PTSD was also observed converging on common signaling cascades, including cytokine, innate immune, and type I interferon pathways. Collectively, these findings provide a broad view of immune dysregulation in PTSD and demonstrate inflammatory pathways of molecular convergence and specificity, which may inform mechanisms and diagnostic biomarkers for the disorder.

Blood-based microarray studies comparing individuals affected with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and typically developing individuals help characterize differences in circulating immune cell functions and offer potential biomarker signal. We sought to combine the subject-level data from previously published studies by mega-analysis to increase the statistical power. We identified studies that compared ex-vivo blood or lymphocytes from ASD-affected individuals and unrelated comparison subjects using Affymetrix or Illumina array platforms. Raw microarray data and clinical meta-data were obtained from seven studies, totaling 626 affected and 447 comparison subjects. Microarray data were processed using uniform methods. Covariate-controlled mixed-effect linear models were used to identify gene transcripts and co-expression network modules that were significantly associated with diagnostic status. Permutation-based gene-set analysis was used to identify functionally related sets of genes that were over- and under-expressed among ASD samples. Our results were consistent with diminished interferon-, EGF-, PDGF-, PI3K-AKT-mTOR-, and RAS-MAPK-signaling cascades, and increased ribosomal translation and NK-cell related activity in ASD. We explored evidence for sex-differences in the ASD-related transcriptomic signature. We also demonstrated that machine-learning classifiers using blood transcriptome data perform with moderate accuracy when data are combined across studies. Comparing our results with those from blood-based studies of protein biomarkers (e.g., cytokines and trophic factors), we propose that ASD may feature decoupling between certain circulating signaling proteins (higher in ASD samples) and the transcriptional cascades which they typically elicit within circulating immune cells (lower in ASD samples). These findings provide insight into ASD-related transcriptional differences in circulating immune cells.

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