ObjectivesTo identify the differential effects of patient, health service, temporal and geographic factors on length of stay (LOS) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)-related admissions.DesignWe used stratified Cox proportional hazard model to evaluate the association between LOS and patient, health service, temporal and geographical factors.SettingPatients resident in Blackpool, North West England, admitted to the local hospital with COPD.ParticipantsWe used the Admitted Patient Care General Episode Commissioning Dataset for the period 1 April 2005–31 March 2010. We analysed records of admission spells among patients resident in Blackpool aged 40 years or older admitted with a primary diagnosis of COPD.ResultsThere were 2410 admissions meeting the inclusion criteria over the period. These admissions were attributed to 1172 COPD patients, an average of 2.06 admissions per patient. The median LOS was 6 days (95% CI 6 to 6) while the mean was 9.8 days (95% CI 9.1 to 10.5). Patients were 22% more likely to be discharged earlier in 2009/2010 compared with 2005/2006 (adjusted HR 1.22; p=0.0100). LOS was associated with socioeconomic deprivation with those in the most deprived areas being 35% less likely to be discharged earlier compared with those from the least deprived areas (adjusted HR 0.65; p=0.0010).ConclusionsLOS among COPD patients have reduced over the period of the study. Age, deprivation, Charlson index, specialty of admission and cause of exacerbations were independently associated with LOS. Though there were no significant associations between LOS and season of admission and distance from hospital, there were significant variations in LOS associated with these variables based on selected patient characteristics.

Background A low procalcitonin (PCT) concentration facilitates exclusion of bacterial co-infections in COVID-19, but high costs associated with PCT measurements preclude universal adoption. Changes in inflammatory markers, including C-reactive protein (CRP), can be concordant, and predicting low PCT concentrations may avoid costs of redundant tests and support more cost-effective deployment of this diagnostic biomarker. Objectives To explore whether, in COVID-19, low PCT values could be predicted by the presence of low CRP concentrations. Methods Unselected cohort of 224 COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital that underwent daily PCT and CRP measurements as standard care. Both 0.25 ng/mL and 0.5 ng/mL were used as cut-offs for positive PCT test results. Geometric mean was used to define high and low CRP values at each timepoint assessed. Results Admission PCT was <0.25 ng/mL in 160/224 (71.4%), 0.25–0.5 ng/mL in 27 (12.0%) and >0.5 ng/mL in 37 (16.5%). Elevated PCT was associated with increased risk of death (P = 0.0004) and was more commonly associated with microbiological evidence of bacterial co-infection (P < 0.0001). For high CRP values, significant heterogeneity in PCT measurements was observed, with maximal positive predictive value of 50% even for a PCT cut-off of 0.25 ng/mL. In contrast, low CRP was strongly predictive of low PCT concentrations, particularly <0.5 ng/mL, with a negative predictive value of 97.6% at time of hospital admission and 100% 48 hours into hospital stay. Conclusions CRP-guided PCT testing algorithms can reduce unnecessary PCT measurement and costs, supporting antimicrobial stewardship strategies in COVID-19.

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Low procalcitonin (PCT) concentrations (<0.5ng/mL) can facilitate exclusion of bacterial co-infection in viral infections, including COVID-19. However, costs associated with PCT measurement preclude universal adoption, indicating a need to identify settings where PCT provides clinical information beyond that offered by other inflammatory markers, such as C-reactive protein (CRP) and white cell count (WCC). In an unselected cohort of 299 COVID-19 patients, we tested the hypothesis that PCT<0.5ng/mL was associated with lower levels of CRP and WCC. We demonstrated that CRP values below the geometric mean of the entire patient population had a negative predictive value for PCT<0.5ng/mL of 97.6% and 100% at baseline and 48 hours into admission respectively, and that this relationship was not confounded by intensive care admission or microbiological findings. CRP-guided PCT testing algorithms can reduce costs and support antimicrobial stewardship strategies in COVID-19.