Annual electric bike (e-bike) sales in China grew from 40,000 in 1998 to 10 million in 2005. This rapid transition from human-powered bicycles, buses and gasoline-powered scooters to an all-electric vehicle/fuel technology system is special in the evolution of transportation technology and, thus far, unique to China. We examine how and why e-bikes developed so quickly in China with particular focus on the key technical, economic, and political factors involved. This case study provides important insights to policy makers in China and abroad on how timely regulatory policy can change the purchase choice of millions and create a new mode of transportation. These lessons are especially important to China as it embarks on a large-scale transition to personal vehicles, but also to other countries seeking more sustainable forms of transportation. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007E-bike, Electric bicycle, Electric scooter, China, Two-wheel vehicle,

a b s t r a c tElectric two-wheelers have become a significant mode of transportation in China in the past decade. Though marketed and publicized by some as zero-emission vehicles, little past research has been done to quantify the environmental impacts of electric two-wheelers in China. This paper quantifies some of the environmental impacts of the production processes and use phase of electric two-wheelers and compares them to the environmental impacts of competing modes, including bicycles, buses, motorcycles and cars. The use phase emissions are quantified geographically with significantly higher emissions in coal rich regions, compared to regions relying more on hydropower. The results show that electric two-wheelers emit several times lower pollution per kilometer than motorcycles and cars, have comparable emission rates to buses and higher emission rates than bicycles. Lead is one pollutant on which electric two-wheelers perform poorly, because of their use of lead acid batteries.

a b s t r a c tThe method of force field analysis is used to examine the future technological and market evolution of electric two-wheelers (E2W) in China. The authors identify key forces driving and resisting future E2W market growth, root causes behind these forces, and important insights about the likelihood of a wide shift to larger three-and four-wheel electric vehicles (EV). The authors conclude that the key forces driving E2W market growth are: improvements in E2W and battery technology due to product modularity and modular industry structure, strong local regulatory support in the form of gasolinepowered motorcycle bans and loose enforcement of E2W standards, and deteriorating bus public transit service. The largest forces resisting E2W market growth are strong demand for gasoline-powered motorcycles, bans on E2Ws due to safety concerns in urban areas, and growing support for public transit. The balance of these forces appears to favor E2W market growth. This growth will likely drive vehicle electrification through continued innovation in batteries and motors, the switch from lead-acid to Li-ion batteries in E2Ws, and the development of larger E2Ws and EVs. There are however strong forces resisting vehicle electrification, including battery cost, charging infrastructure, and inherent complications with large battery systems.

E-bikes are bicycles that provide pedal-assistance to aid people in cycling. Because of the potential of promoting sustainable transportation, more attention has been focused on the e-bike market. This paper investigates the differences of the cycling experience and perceptions between e-bike and conventional bicycle users, using samples drawn from independent bicycle dealer customers. A total of 806 respondents in the United States took the on-line survey, including 363 e-bike-owning respondents. The results show that e-bikes play a more important role in utilitarian travel, such as commuting and running errands, compared to a conventional bicycle. Conventional bicycle-owning respondents use their bicycles more for recreation and exercise. Also, e-bike owners tend to bike longer distances and take more trips per week. Both e-bike respondents and bicycle respondents stated that improved health was a key factor for cycling, while Millennials and Generation X respondents cycle to save time and improve the environment. Finally, an ordered logit model is proposed for evaluating factors that influence interest in future e-bike ownership. Travel purpose, e-bike familiarity, annual household income, and education level are statistically significant factors in the model. These findings begin to provide insight and a profile of potential new markets for e-bikes in the United States.

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