Accurately identifying the patients that have mild cognitive impairment (MCI) who will go on to develop Alzheimer's disease (AD) will become essential as new treatments will require identification of AD patients at earlier stages in the disease process. Most previous work in this area has centred around the same automated techniques used to diagnose AD patients from healthy controls, by coupling high dimensional brain image data or other relevant biomarker data to modern machine learning techniques. Such studies can now distinguish between AD patients and controls as accurately as an experienced clinician. Models trained on patients with AD and control subjects can also distinguish between MCI patients that will convert to AD within a given timeframe (MCI-c) and those that remain stable (MCI-s), although differences between these groups are smaller and thus, the corresponding accuracy is lower. The most common type of classifier used in these studies is the support vector machine, which gives categorical class decisions. In this paper, we introduce Gaussian process (GP) classification to the problem. This fully Bayesian method produces naturally probabilistic predictions, which we show correlate well with the actual chances of converting to AD within 3 years in a population of 96 MCI-s and 47 MCI-c subjects. Furthermore, we show that GPs can integrate multimodal data (in this study volumetric MRI, FDG-PET, cerebrospinal fluid, and APOE genotype with the classification process through the use of a mixed kernel). The GP approach aids combination of different data sources by learning parameters automatically from training data via type-II maximum likelihood, which we compare to a more conventional method based on cross validation and an SVM classifier. When the resulting probabilities from the GP are dichotomised to produce a binary classification, the results for predicting MCI conversion based on the combination of all three types of data show a balanced accuracy of 74%. This is a substantially higher accuracy than could be obtained using any individual modality or using a multikernel SVM, and is competitive with the highest accuracy yet achieved for predicting conversion within three years on the widely used ADNI dataset.

Schizophrenia is a severe psychiatric disorder associated with both structural and functional brain abnormalities. In the past few years, there has been growing interest in the application of machine learning techniques to neuroimaging data for the diagnostic and prognostic assessment of this disorder. However, the vast majority of studies published so far have used either structural or functional neuroimaging data, without accounting for the multimodal nature of the disorder. Structural MRI and resting‐state functional MRI data were acquired from a total of 295 patients with schizophrenia and 452 healthy controls at five research centers. We extracted features from the data including gray matter volume, white matter volume, amplitude of low‐frequency fluctuation, regional homogeneity and two connectome‐wide based metrics: structural covariance matrices and functional connectivity matrices. A support vector machine classifier was trained on each dataset separately to distinguish the subjects at individual level using each of the single feature as well as their combination, and 10‐fold cross‐validation was used to assess the performance of the model. Functional data allow higher accuracy of classification than structural data (mean 82.75% vs. 75.84%). Within each modality, the combination of images and matrices improves performance, resulting in mean accuracies of 81.63% for structural data and 87.59% for functional data. The use of all combined structural and functional measures allows the highest accuracy of classification (90.83%). We conclude that combining multimodal measures within a single model is a promising direction for developing biologically informed diagnostic tools in schizophrenia.

Background Previous studies using resting-state functional neuroimaging have revealed alterations in whole-brain images, connectome-wide functional connectivity and graph-based metrics in groups of patients with schizophrenia relative to groups of healthy controls. However, it is unclear which of these measures best captures the neural correlates of this disorder at the level of the individual patient. Methods Here we investigated the relative diagnostic value of these measures. A total of 295 patients with schizophrenia and 452 healthy controls were investigated using resting-state functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging at five research centres. Connectome-wide functional networks were constructed by thresholding correlation matrices of 90 brain regions, and their topological properties were analyzed using graph theory-based methods. Single-subject classification was performed using three machine learning (ML) approaches associated with varying degrees of complexity and abstraction, namely logistic regression, support vector machine and deep learning technology. Results Connectome-wide functional connectivity allowed single-subject classification of patients and controls with higher accuracy (average: 81%) than both whole-brain images (average: 53%) and graph-based metrics (average: 69%). Classification based on connectome-wide functional connectivity was driven by a distributed bilateral network including the thalamus and temporal regions. Conclusion These results were replicated across the three employed ML approaches. Connectome-wide functional connectivity permits differentiation of patients with schizophrenia from healthy controls at single-subject level with greater accuracy; this pattern of results is consistent with the ‘dysconnectivity hypothesis’ of schizophrenia, which states that the neural basis of the disorder is best understood in terms of system-level functional connectivity alterations.

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