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Abstract. The coastal Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and coastal sea off the Korean Peninsula (CSK) both suffer from human-induced eutrophication. We used a nitrogen (N) mass balance model in two different regions with different nitrogen input sources to estimate organic carbon fluxes and predict future carbon fluxes under different model scenarios. The coastal GOM receives nitrogen predominantly from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers and atmospheric nitrogen deposition is only a minor component in this region. In the CSK, groundwater and atmospheric nitrogen deposition are more important controlling factors. Our model includes the fluxes of nitrogen to the ocean from the atmosphere, groundwater and rivers, based on observational and literature data, and identifies three zones (brown, green and blue waters) in the coastal GOM and CSK with different productivity and carbon fluxes. Based on our model results, the potential primary production rate in the inner (brown water) zone are over 2 gC m−2 d−1 (GOM) and 1.5 gC m−2 d−1 (CSK). In the middle (green water) zone, potential production is from 0.1 to 2 (GOM) and 0.3 to 1.5 gC m−2 d−1 (CSK). In the offshore (blue water) zone, productivity is less than 0.1 (GOM) and 0.3 (CSK) gC m−2 d−1. Through our model scenario results, overall oxygen demand in the GOM will increase approximately 21 % if we fail to reduce riverine N input, likely increasing considerably the area affected by hypoxia. Comparing the results from the USA with those from the Korean Peninsula shows the importance of considering both riverine and atmospheric inputs of nitrogen. This has direct implications for investigating how changes in energy technologies can lead to changes in the production of various atmospheric contaminants that affect air quality, climate and the health of local populations.

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Estuarine primary production (PP) is a critical rate process for understanding ecosystem function and response to environmental change. PP is fundamentally linked to estuarine eutrophication, and as such should respond to ongoing efforts to reduce nutrient inputs to estuaries globally. However, concurrent changes including warming, altered hydrology, reduced input of sediments, and emergence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) could interact with nutrient management to produce unexpected changes in PP. Despite its fundamental importance, estuarine PP is rarely measured. We reconstructed PP in the York River Estuary with a novel mass balance model based on dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) for the period 1994–2018. Modeled PP compared well to previous estimates and demonstrated a long‐term increase and down‐estuary shift over the study period. This increase occurred despite reductions in discharge, flushing time, DIN loading, and DIN standing stock over the same period. Increased PP corresponded to increased water temperature, decreased turbidity and light attenuation, and increased photic depth and assimilation ratio, suggesting that phytoplankton in the York River Estuary have become more efficient at converting nutrients into biomass primarily due to a release from light limitation. The increase in PP also coincided with the increasing occurrence of late summer HABs in the lower York River Estuary, including the emergence of a second bloom‐forming dinoflagellate in 2007. Results demonstrate how changes concurrent with nutrient management could alter expected system responses and illustrate the utility of the mass balance approach for estimating critical rate processes like PP in the absence of observations.