In 2012, despite controlling more than 60% of all seats in Japan’s lower house, the Democratic Party of Japan had roughly 100 legislators switch parties. The break-up proved so disastrous that the DPJ went defunct and Japan’s steadily developing two-party system utterly collapsed, marking one of the most momentous events in recent Japanese political history. However, there is little systematic understanding what produced this outcome. I leverage a dataset of candidate policy preferences in order to pinpoint what led politicians to take the dramatic step of leaving the ruling party. Through factor analysis and logistic regression, I find that DPJ incumbents with policy preferences significantly different from their party were especially likely to switch and that those preferences predict the party they ultimately chose.

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In 2009, after decades of single party rule under the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Japan had its first taste of a real alteration of power. However, just 3 years later, the LDP regained control of government with no significant challenger in sight. Historically, LDP dominance is a common tale, but its resurgence in recent years poses a significant puzzle in Japanese politics. What exactly has contributed to the LDP's return to power? In the years that have passed, the LDP's strength has come from a combination of cash, clientelistic networks, and strong candidates, but recent research has found that Japanese politics has become more programmatic and party-focused. While LDP dominance since its return to power in 2012 can be attributed in part to its candidates, I find that the appeal of the party label has played a large role in securing the LDP's large majorities.