En el presente trabajo se desarrollaron y probaron dos métodos generalizados ponderados de imputación de los valores de datos faltantes, utilizando para ello series diarias de precipitación. Se usaron registros de precipitación del estado de Tabasco, México, del periodo 1980-2012, para probar y evaluar la metodología propuesta. La imputación de datos faltantes en una estación meteorológica determinada se realizó utilizando información diaria de estaciones cercanas con patrones similares de precipitación. La selección de parámetros óptimos para las fórmulas propuestas se basó en la minimización del error medio absoluto mediante una estrategia evolutiva (CMA-ES). Se utilizó el método de K-medias junto con la distancia euclidiana para elegir las estaciones meteorológicas cercanas adecuadas. Se aplicaron cinco métodos diferentes para estimar el número óptimo de clústeres: el método de Elbow, la estadística de Gap y los índices TraceW, de Hartigan y de Krasnowski-Lai. Adicionalmente, se evaluó la estabilidad estructural de los clústeres seleccionados para demostrar que representan la estructura de datos correcta y no son resultado de un procedimiento interno artificial del algoritmo de agrupación. Los resultados de dos pruebas estadísticas, Friedman y Nemenyi post hoc, mostraron que los dos nuevos métodos presentados, producen estimaciones estadísticas significativamente mejores en comparación con otros métodos encontrados en la literatura.
The arrival of new industries in some municipalities of ‘El Bajío’ in Guanajuato state, Mexico, has brought about appreciable economic development and human impacts, but has also caused changes in the management of the aquifers from which they get water for their operations. In some cases, the aquifers are overexploited and contaminated at different levels. A number of agencies have the main responsibility for managing, protecting and conducting studies on water use in both municipalities and the state and, in this context, experts from these agencies were consulted as part of this study about what environmental, social, economic and hydrological aspects had the highest priority when considering the establishment of a new industry in the zone. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) methodology was used. Results show that hydrological aspects were the most important and, within them, treatment and reuse of water had the highest priority. It was concluded, therefore, that for the experts to reuse water in some activities and productive processes must be an option to decrease the water extraction from aquifers, supposing that the treatment process complied with the required regulations. Given the present conditions in the region, we can affirm that these results are applicable to the whole of El Bajío.
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